CY6U

CapitaLand India Trust

$1.26 SGD 1.71B market cap 22 February 2026

CapitaLand India Trust CY6U BUFFETT / MUNGER / KLARMAN SUMMARY

1 SNAPSHOT

Price$1.26

Market CapSGD 1.71B

EVSGD 3.33B

Net DebtSGD 1.49B

Shares1.356B

2 BUSINESS

Singapore-listed business trust owning SGD 3.8B of IT business parks, industrial facilities, and data centres across India's top-tier cities (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune, Mumbai). Earns rental income from 307 tenants across 21.7M sq ft of completed space, anchored by GCC/IT companies (TCS 11%, Applied Materials 8%, Infosys 5%). Expanding aggressively into data centres with ~200 MW under development leased to a leading global hyperscaler.

Revenue: SGD 294.4M Organic Growth: 6.0%

3 MOAT NARROW

Prime IT park locations in established tech corridors with high tenant switching costs (average 6.6-year leases, expensive fit-outs). CapitaLand sponsor provides deal flow and management expertise. Portfolio scale at 21.7M sq ft creates operational efficiencies. Demonstrated pricing power with +21% rental reversions TTM. However, IT park space is ultimately substitutable, India has abundant development capacity, and currency translation erodes advantages for SGD investors.

4 MANAGEMENT

CEO: Gauri Shankar Nagabhushanam (since Aug 2024)

Active capital recycling - divested CyberPearl, CyberVale, and 20.2% DC stake at 13.7% premium. Strategic pipeline of SGD 991M (7.3M sq ft). Prudent debt onshoring initiative targeting 40-50% onshore INR debt for natural currency hedge and tax efficiency. Issued first INR bond at AAA rating. Retains 10% of distributable income for growth flexibility.

5 ECONOMICS

64.9% Op Margin

3.8% ROIC

SGD -52.8M (negative due to heavy development capex) FCF

6.6x Debt/EBITDA

6 VALUATION

FCF/ShareSGD -0.04 (development phase)

FCF YieldN/A (negative FCF)

DCF RangeSGD 1.12 - 1.43

Bear case at 7.0% yield (SGD 1.12), base case at 1.0x P/NAV (SGD 1.38), bull case at 5.5% yield (SGD 1.43). Sum-of-parts NAV including development value: SGD 1.53. Gordon Growth Model with 5% DPU growth, 9% required return: SGD 1.97 (likely overstated).

7 MUNGER INVERSION -29.75%

Kill Event	Severity	P()	E[Loss]
INR/SGD depreciation erodes DPU in Singapore dollar terms	-15%	70%	-10.5%
India office demand slowdown from GCC pullback or AI displacement	-30%	20%	-6.0%
Data centre cost overruns, construction delays, or tech obsolescence	-20%	25%	-5.0%
Rising interest rates increase cost of debt and compress yield spreads	-15%	30%	-4.5%
Gearing breach forces dilutive equity raising at steep discount	-25%	15%	-3.75%

Tail Risk: Severe INR crash (e.g., India balance of payments crisis) combined with global tech recession could simultaneously collapse rental demand, spike borrowing costs, and destroy SGD-denominated returns. The data centre development program is a concentrated bet that amplifies these risks.

8 KLARMAN LENS

Downside Case

In the bear case, INR continues depreciating 5-7% annually vs SGD, occupancy drops to 85% amid oversupply, data centre development encounters cost overruns, and CLINT is forced to raise equity at 0.7x NAV. DPU could decline 15-20% and unit price could fall to SGD 0.85-0.95.

Why Market Wrong

Market may be undervaluing the structural growth from India's GCC expansion (record 78M sq ft absorption in 2025) and the transformative potential of CLINT's data centre platform (200 MW at enterprise value of SGD 738M). The 9% discount to NAV may not reflect the 7.3M sq ft committed pipeline or the onshoring debt strategy that could boost DPU by ~4% annually.

Why Market Right

Market may be correctly pricing in persistent INR depreciation (6% in FY2025), the unsustainable nature of distributions funded by debt (FCF is negative), concentrated data centre execution risk, and the structural challenges of investing in an emerging market business trust. The 5.25x P/E is misleading due to fair value gains, and the forward P/E of 11.5x is more representative of recurring earnings.

Catalysts

Data centre revenue recognition as Navi Mumbai Tower 2 and Hyderabad/Chennai DCs come online in 2026-2027. Successful onshoring of debt to 40-50% by 2028-2029. Potential STI Index inclusion. Further rental reversions from market tightness. Completion of MTB 7 at ITPB (0.9M sq ft by 3Q 2027).

9 VERDICT WAIT

B+ T3 Adaptable

Strong Buy$0.95

Buy$1.1

Sell$1.55

CapitaLand India Trust offers attractive 6.25% yield with visible DPU growth from a SGD 991M pipeline, riding India's structural IT/DC demand boom. However, persistent INR depreciation, negative free cash flow, 39.6% gearing, and concentrated data centre execution risk warrant patience. Accumulate below SGD 1.10 (7.2% yield, 0.80x P/NAV) for a 3-4% portfolio position.

🧠 ULTRATHINK Deep Philosophical Analysis

CY6U - Ultrathink Analysis

The Real Question

The real question here is not whether India's IT parks and data centres are good businesses. They obviously are - the demand numbers are extraordinary (78-83 million sq ft leased in 2025, a third consecutive record year), and the data centre boom driven by AI and cloud adoption is a generational shift. The real question is whether a Singapore-listed, externally-managed business trust is the right vehicle through which to participate in this boom, and whether the current price offers a genuine margin of safety after accounting for the structural frictions.

Every dollar of Indian rental income that makes its way into a Singaporean unitholder's pocket must first survive a gauntlet: INR/SGD currency translation (which has destroyed 32% of value over five years), withholding taxes, trustee-manager fees, and the relentless need for external capital to fund growth. The trust distributed SGD 107M in FY2025 but its free cash flow was negative. That is not a self-sustaining distribution - it is a distribution subsidized by capital markets access. As long as CLINT can borrow cheaply, raise equity, and recycle assets at premiums, this works beautifully. When capital markets close, the model breaks.

Hidden Assumptions

The market is making several assumptions that deserve scrutiny:

Assumption 1: India's IT office boom is structural, not cyclical. The GCC expansion that has driven record leasing is real, but it is also unusually concentrated. A handful of large corporations (TCS alone is 11% of CLINT's rent) drive a disproportionate share of demand. If AI genuinely automates a material portion of IT services work - and companies like TCS and Infosys are both implementing and potentially being disrupted by AI - the demand picture could shift faster than anyone expects. The market assumes linear extrapolation; reality tends to be punctuated.

Assumption 2: The data centre bet will transform CLINT's earnings. Management has committed approximately SGD 1 billion to data centre development - roughly 60% of the entire market cap. This is not a hedged bet; it is a concentrated wager on India becoming a major data centre hub. The hyperscaler lease provides downside protection, but the economics of colocation data centres are fundamentally different from IT parks. Power costs, cooling efficiency, technology cycles, and hyperscaler bargaining power are all variables that CLINT has limited experience managing. The market is pricing in success; the question is what happens if it merely achieves adequacy.

Assumption 3: INR depreciation will moderate. Over the past decade, the INR has depreciated against the SGD at roughly 3-4% per annum. If this continues, it mechanically reduces CLINT's SGD DPU growth by the same amount. The onshoring debt strategy (moving from 16% to 40-50% onshore INR debt) is intelligent - it creates a natural hedge and eliminates withholding tax - but it takes 3-4 years to implement. The currency headwind is here now.

The Contrarian View

For the bears to be right, the following would need to be true:

India's IT office market is peaking, not accelerating. The record 2023-2025 leasing volumes represent the high watermark, and vacancy rates will rise as 55M+ sq ft of new supply comes online annually. GCC expansion decelerates as global corporations realize AI can substitute for some of the work done in India. Office-to-residential conversions and work-from-home reduce structural demand.

CLINT's data centre strategy is a capital trap. The SGD 1B commitment consumes financial flexibility while generating inadequate returns. Hyperscaler tenants extract all the economic surplus through their negotiating power, leaving CLINT with utility-like returns on massive capital deployed. Competition from global DC operators (Equinix, Digital Realty, Adani, etc.) intensifies.

The business trust structure is permanently value-destructive. External management fees, perpetual dilution from equity raisings, and related-party sponsor transactions systematically transfer value from unitholders to management and sponsor. The 10% retention and 91% DPU payout ratio create an illusion of generosity while the trust quietly compounds debt.

These bear arguments have merit. The question is whether the current 6.25% yield and 0.91x P/NAV adequately compensate for these risks. My answer is: almost, but not quite.

Simplest Thesis

CLINT offers a 6.25% yield on India's structural IT and data centre demand, but persistent currency depreciation and capital-intensive growth mean you need a 15-20% margin of safety to be compensated for the risks.

Why This Opportunity Exists

The opportunity exists - or rather, the valuation gap exists - because of a genuine tension in the investment case that is difficult for the market to resolve.

On one hand, India's commercial real estate fundamentals are the strongest they have been in decades. GDP growth of 5-7%, GCC expansion, data localization requirements, and AI infrastructure buildout create powerful demand tailwinds. CLINT's portfolio is well-positioned in the right cities with the right tenants.

On the other hand, the vehicle through which investors access this story - a Singapore-listed business trust - introduces frictions that are almost uniquely hostile to long-term compounding. Currency translation, external management, constant capital raising, and the trust structure's inability to retain and reinvest earnings internally all work against the unitholder. A direct investment in Indian real estate would avoid most of these frictions, but most international investors cannot make such investments directly.

This structural tension means CLINT will perpetually trade at a discount to its theoretical value. The question is not whether the discount is justified (it is), but whether the discount is wide enough to compensate for the vehicle's limitations. At 0.91x P/NAV and 6.25% yield, the compensation is insufficient. At 0.80x P/NAV and 7.2% yield, it begins to get interesting.

What Would Change My Mind

I would upgrade CLINT to a BUY if:

Price falls to SGD 1.10 or below (0.80x P/NAV, 7.2% yield) - providing adequate margin of safety
Data centre completion demonstrates strong economics - if Navi Mumbai Tower 2 achieves full occupancy with colocation returns exceeding 8% yield on cost, the DC strategy is validated
INR stabilizes or appreciates vs SGD - any sustained period of INR stability would transform the DPU growth profile
Onshore debt reaches 40%+ - demonstrating improved capital structure and natural hedging
Occupancy rises above 95% - indicating strong market and pricing power

I would REJECT CLINT if:

Gearing exceeds 45% with no clear path to reduction
DPU declines in SGD terms for two consecutive halves
Data centre construction costs exceed budget by >20%
Trustee-manager proposes material related-party transaction at unfavorable terms
India enters a prolonged office market downturn (vacancy >20%)

The Soul of This Business

At its core, CLINT is a bet on India's inexorable rise as a global services hub. The IT parks that house TCS, Infosys, Amazon, and Applied Materials are the physical infrastructure of India's knowledge economy. The data centres being built today will house the AI workloads and cloud infrastructure that power India's digital transformation.

This is a compelling narrative, and it is substantially true. India's young, educated workforce, cost advantages, and improving infrastructure create structural demand for high-quality business space. The 79 million sq ft leased in 2024 and 78-83 million sq ft in 2025 are not flukes - they reflect genuine demand from multinational corporations establishing or expanding their Indian operations.

But narrative is not the same as investment return. The soul of this business - quality Indian commercial real estate - is strong. The soul of this vehicle - an externally managed Singapore business trust - is weaker. The manager earns fees regardless of unitholder returns. The sponsor sells assets to the trust and buys them back through funds. The currency conversion slowly erodes purchasing power.

The competitive position is neither inevitable nor fragile - it is persistent. India will need IT parks and data centres for decades. CLINT's specific parks will remain relevant as long as they are well-maintained and competitively priced. But there is no network effect, no winner-take-all dynamic, no compounding moat that gets wider with time. This is a good business in a great market, wrapped in an adequate structure, available at a fair price.

For the patient investor, the path is clear: wait for the market to offer a genuinely attractive entry point (SGD 1.10 or below), buy a modest position (3-4% of portfolio), collect the 7%+ yield, and let India's growth do the heavy lifting. Do not overpay for the narrative. Do not ignore the currency. And do not mistake distribution growth funded by debt for genuine per-unit value creation.

Executive Summary

3-Sentence Investment Thesis

CapitaLand India Trust is a well-managed Singapore-listed business trust owning SGD 3.8 billion of IT parks, industrial facilities, and data centres across India's top-tier cities, riding the structural tailwind of India's booming GCC/IT office market and data centre demand. With FY2025 DPU growing 15% YoY to 7.87 Singapore cents, a 6.25% yield, and trading at 0.91x P/NAV, CLINT offers attractive income with visible growth from a SGD 991M committed pipeline. However, the REIT structure necessitates constant capital raising, INR/SGD currency depreciation is a persistent headwind, and 39.6% gearing leaves limited debt capacity for its capital-intensive data centre ambitions.

Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Assessment
Price / NAV	0.91x	Slight discount to book
P/E (TTM)	5.25x	Misleading (includes fair value gains)
Forward P/E	11.49x	More reflective of recurring earnings
Dividend Yield	6.25%	Attractive, well-covered
DPU Growth (FY25)	+15% YoY	Strong, best in several years
Gearing	39.6%	Moderate, SGD 967M headroom to 50%
ICR	2.7x	Adequate but not strong
Cost of Debt	5.6%	Declining (was 5.8%)
Occupancy	91%	Good; room for improvement
WALE	3.4 years	Moderate
Rental Reversion	+21% TTM	Very strong
ROE	16.8%	Good (includes revaluations)
NAV per Unit	SGD 1.38	Growing at ~10% CAGR over 10 years

Decision: WAIT - Accumulate below SGD 1.10

Phase 0: Business Understanding

What Does CLINT Own?

CapitaLand India Trust is a Singapore-listed business trust that owns, develops, and manages commercial real estate in India. As at 31 December 2025, its portfolio comprises:

IT Parks (77% of valuation):

8 IT business parks across Bangalore (ITPB), Chennai (ITPC), Hyderabad (ITPH, aVance), Pune (ITPP-H, aVance I & II), and Mumbai (Building Q1 & Q2)
21.7 million sq ft completed floor area
Anchor tenants: TCS (11%), Applied Materials (8%), Infosys (5%), Amazon (3%)

Data Centres (20% of valuation):

4 data centre developments: Navi Mumbai (Tower 1 operational, Tower 2 in construction), Hyderabad (ITPH), Chennai, and ITPB
Total gross power capacity: ~200 MW
Fully leased to a leading global hyperscaler (long-term agreement)
Enterprise value of DC portfolio: SGD 738M (divested 20.2% stake in Dec 2025)

Industrial & Logistics (3% of valuation):

3 industrial facilities at Mahindra World City, Chennai
1 logistics park in Navi Mumbai

How Does CLINT Make Money?

Rental income from IT parks (base rent + operations/maintenance income)
FY2025 total property income: SGD 294.4M (+6% YoY)
FY2025 net property income: SGD 224.9M (+9% YoY), NPI margin 76.4%
Distributes 90% of distributable income (retains 10% for growth)
DPU: 7.87 Singapore cents (FY2025), growing at 4% CAGR (SGD) over 10 years

Business Trust Structure

CLINT is structured as a business trust, not a REIT, giving it flexibility to develop properties and take on development risk. However, it voluntarily adopted REIT restrictions:

Gearing capped at 50%
Distributes at least 90% of distributable income
Semi-annual distributions (June and December periods)

Phase 1: Risk Analysis (Inversion - What Could Go Wrong?)

Risk Register

#	Risk Event	Probability	Severity	Expected Loss
1	INR/SGD depreciation erodes DPU	70%	-15%	-10.5%
2	India office demand slowdown (GCC pullback)	20%	-30%	-6.0%
3	Data centre cost overruns / delays	25%	-20%	-5.0%
4	Rising interest rates increase cost of debt	30%	-15%	-4.5%
5	Tenant concentration risk (TCS 11%)	10%	-20%	-2.0%
6	Gearing breach / forced equity raising at discount	15%	-25%	-3.75%
7	Regulatory/tax changes in India	15%	-15%	-2.25%
8	CapitaLand sponsor conflict of interest	10%	-15%	-1.5%
9	Competition from new IT park supply	30%	-10%	-3.0%
10	Macroeconomic shock (global recession)	15%	-35%	-5.25%

Total Expected Downside: -43.75% (not additive; scenarios overlap)

Deep Dive on Top Risks

1. INR/SGD Currency Risk (Highest Probability) This is CLINT's most persistent risk. The INR depreciated ~6% vs SGD in FY2025 alone (average rate moved from 62.5 to 66.1). Over 5 years, SGD has appreciated from ~53 INR to ~70 INR - a cumulative ~32% depreciation. This directly erodes DPU when converted from INR to SGD. CLINT's INR DPU grew 22% in FY2025, but SGD DPU grew only 15% due to currency. The trust uses cross-currency swaps and forward contracts (hedges 50-75% of income), but this is an ongoing drag. The strategy to onshore debt (currently 16%, targeting 40-50%) helps create a natural hedge.

2. Data Centre Execution Risk CLINT has committed ~SGD 1.0B to data centre development (4 facilities, ~200 MW). This is a massive bet for a SGD 1.7B market cap trust. While the hyperscaler lease provides revenue certainty, construction cost overruns, power infrastructure challenges, and technology obsolescence are real risks. The partial divestment of 20.2% stake to CapitaLand India Data Centre Fund at a 13.7% premium to valuation is a positive signal but also highlights the capital intensity.

3. India Office Market Cyclicality India's office market hit record absorption of 78-83M sq ft in 2025 for the third consecutive year. This is cyclically strong. The risk is mean reversion - GCC expansion could slow if global corporates retrench, AI displaces some IT services jobs, or India's cost advantage narrows. Vacancy rates fell to 10.8% nationally, but Pune (where CLINT has significant exposure) saw vacancies rise 4.6% due to new supply.

4. Gearing and Capital Structure At 39.6% gearing with SGD 967M headroom to the 50% limit, CLINT has reasonable but not abundant debt capacity. The ICR of 2.7x is adequate but would drop to 2.4x with either a 10% EBITDA decline or 100bps rate increase. The trust recently issued SGD 100M perpetual securities, which dilute returns to ordinary unitholders. Cost of debt at 5.6% is declining but still high relative to cap rates (8.0-8.5%).

Phase 2: Financial Analysis

Revenue and Income Growth

Year	Revenue (SGD M)	NPI (SGD M)	NPI Margin	DPU (S cents)	DPU Growth
FY2021	192.7	-	-	8.19	-
FY2022	210.6	-	-	8.15	-0.5%
FY2023	234.1	179.6	76.7%	6.45	-20.9%
FY2024	277.9	205.6	74.0%	6.84	+6.0%
FY2025	294.4	224.9	76.4%	7.87	+15.1%

Note: FY2021-2022 DPU was higher due to one-off items and different unit counts. Underlying operational DPU has been growing consistently.

Revenue CAGR (5-year, FY2020-FY2025): ~9% NPI CAGR (3-year, FY2023-FY2025): ~12%

Balance Sheet Strength

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	Assessment
Total Assets	SGD 4.66B	SGD 4.48B	Growing via development
Investment Properties	SGD 3.05B	SGD 3.55B	Reclassified to held-for-sale
Total Debt	SGD 1.63B	SGD 1.76B	Reduced slightly
Cash	SGD 142M	SGD 135M	Adequate liquidity
Net Assets to Unitholders	SGD 1.87B	SGD 1.86B	Stable
NAV per Unit	SGD 1.38	SGD 1.38	Stable in SGD
Gearing	39.6%	38.5%	Slight increase
Perpetual Securities	SGD 101M	0	New issuance

Key Balance Sheet Observations:

Debt maturity is well-spread: SGD 318M in FY2026, SGD 405M in FY2027, average 2.5 years
72.6% of borrowings on fixed rates (good in rising rate environment)
84% unsecured borrowings (provides flexibility)
SGD 791M assets held for sale (data centre partial divestment)

Cash Flow Analysis

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023
Operating Cash Flow	SGD 139.8M	SGD 171.1M	SGD 245.0M
CapEx	SGD (192.6M)	SGD (203.7M)	SGD (132.6M)
Distributions Paid	SGD (96.9M)	SGD (90.2M)	SGD (89.7M)
Net Debt Issued	SGD 129.3M	SGD 373.6M	SGD 123.8M

Critical observation: CLINT's distributions EXCEED free cash flow (OCF - CapEx). In FY2025, OCF was SGD 139.8M, CapEx was SGD 192.6M, meaning the trust is spending more on development than it generates from operations. Distributions of SGD 96.9M are funded partly by borrowings and capital recycling. This is common for growth REITs but means the yield is not fully self-funding - the trust relies on debt and capital market access.

Valuation Analysis

1. Price/NAV Approach (Primary for REITs)

NAV per unit: SGD 1.38
Current price: SGD 1.26
P/NAV: 0.91x (9% discount)
This suggests mild undervaluation relative to book value

2. Yield-Based Valuation

FY2025 DPU: 7.87 cents
At 6.25% yield (current): Price = SGD 1.26
At 5.5% yield (fair for quality REIT): Price = SGD 1.43
At 7.0% yield (margin of safety): Price = SGD 1.12

3. Distribution Growth Model

FY2025 DPU: 7.87 cents
Assumed growth: 5% per annum (conservative vs 15% achieved)
Required return: 9% (risk-free 3.5% + equity risk premium)
Gordon Growth Model: 7.87 / (0.09 - 0.05) = SGD 1.97
This overstates value as it assumes perpetual 5% growth

4. Sum-of-Parts Approach

Segment	Valuation (SGD M)	Method
IT Parks	2,903	Independent valuation Dec 2025
Industrial & Logistics	121	Independent valuation
Data Centres	762	Enterprise value (post-divestment CLINT share ~79.8%)
Total Portfolio	~3,786	Per financial statements
Less: Net Debt	(1,494)	Total debt less cash
Less: Perpetual Securities	(101)	At par
Less: Minority interests	(117)	Per balance sheet
Estimated NAV	~2,074
NAV per unit (1,356M units)	SGD 1.53	Including development value
Current price discount	18%	To sum-of-parts NAV

Fair Value Range: SGD 1.12 - 1.43

Bear case (7% yield): SGD 1.12
Base case (P/NAV 1.0x): SGD 1.38
Bull case (5.5% yield): SGD 1.43

Phase 3: Moat Analysis

Moat Rating: NARROW

Sources of Competitive Advantage:

Location Quality (Moderate Moat)
- IT parks in established tech corridors (Whitefield Bangalore, HITEC City Hyderabad, Taramani Chennai)
- Freehold or long-term leasehold land in prime locations
- These locations cannot be replicated - but new supply can be built nearby
- Bangalore ITPB has 1.4M sq ft land bank for future development
Tenant Switching Costs (Moderate Moat)
- Average lease term of 6.6 years, WALE of 3.4 years
- IT companies invest heavily in fit-outs (SGD 50-100/sq ft)
- Campus-style IT parks with integrated amenities create stickiness
- +21% rental reversion demonstrates pricing power
- 307 tenants with average 59,000 sq ft each
Scale and Sponsor Advantage (Narrow Moat)
- CapitaLand Investment Limited (CLI) sponsor provides deal flow
- 21.7M sq ft portfolio is among the largest in India
- Management expertise in developing IT parks and data centres
- BBB- credit rating (Fitch) enables competitive funding
Data Centre First-Mover (Emerging)
- Early entrant in India DC market with 200 MW under development
- Long-term hyperscaler lease provides revenue certainty
- But limited track record and heavy competition from global DC operators

Moat Durability: 10-15 years for IT parks, uncertain for data centres

The moat is narrow because:

IT park space is ultimately a commodity (quality office space)
India has abundant land and construction capacity
Vacancy rates can swing with economic cycles
Currency translation eliminates some competitive advantages for SGD investors

Phase 4: Decision Synthesis

Management Assessment

CEO: Gauri Shankar Nagabhushanam (since August 2024)

Young (46), ambitious, deep India real estate experience (23 years)
Previously headed India Business Park operations for CapitaLand
Too early to assess long-term capital allocation track record
Former CEO Sanjeev Dasgupta served 10 years, remains on board

Capital Allocation: Good

Active capital recycling (divested CyberPearl, CyberVale, partial DC divestment)
Strategic pipeline of SGD 991M in 7.3M sq ft forward purchases
Prudent debt onshoring strategy (16% onshore, targeting 40-50%)
First INR bond issuance at 7.25% rated AAA by CRISIL

Key Concern: Sponsor conflict - CLI is both sponsor and controller. Related-party transactions (forward purchases, DC divestment to CLI fund) need scrutiny.

Position Sizing

Given the NARROW moat, currency risk, and growth REIT structure:

Maximum allocation: 3-4% of portfolio
Not suitable for core holding due to currency/country risk

Entry Prices

Level	Price (SGD)	Implied Yield	P/NAV	Rationale
Strong Buy	0.95	8.3%	0.69x	30% margin of safety
Accumulate	1.10	7.2%	0.80x	20% margin of safety
Current	1.26	6.25%	0.91x	Fair but no margin of safety
Sell	1.55	5.1%	1.12x	Premium to NAV

Monitoring Triggers

Metric	Green	Yellow	Red
Occupancy	>93%	88-93%	<88%
Gearing	<40%	40-45%	>45%
ICR	>3.0x	2.5-3.0x	<2.5x
DPU Growth	>5%	0-5%	Negative
Rental Reversion	>10%	0-10%	Negative
INR/SGD Rate	<65	65-75	>75

Catalysts

Positive:

Data centre completion and revenue recognition (2026-2027)
Further rental reversions (+21% TTM suggests strong market)
India GDP growth driving GCC expansion
Onshoring debt improving post-tax returns
Potential STI Index inclusion as market cap grows

Negative:

INR depreciation exceeding hedging capacity
Global tech recession reducing GCC demand
Rising interest rates compressing yield spreads
Dilutive equity raising for pipeline funding

Final Verdict

Recommendation: WAIT

CapitaLand India Trust is a quality vehicle for India office/data centre exposure with strong operational momentum (DPU +15%, rental reversion +21%, pipeline of 7.3M sq ft). The 6.25% yield is attractive but not compelling given the currency risk, gearing concerns, and data centre execution risk.

At SGD 1.26 (P/NAV 0.91x), the stock is reasonably valued but offers insufficient margin of safety for a business trust with structural currency headwinds and capital-intensive growth plans. The dividend is not fully covered by free cash flow, relying on capital recycling and borrowings.

Action: Place on watchlist. Accumulate below SGD 1.10 (7.2% yield, 0.80x P/NAV) for a 3-4% portfolio position. The structural growth story in India IT/DC is compelling, but price discipline is essential.

Quality Grade: B+ Tier: T3 Adaptable (Quality business, but currency/structural risks prevent higher tier)