IFCN

INFICON Holding AG

CHF 120.2 2.9B market cap February 21, 2026 (Updated from December 25, 2025)

INFICON Holding AG IFCN BUFFETT / MUNGER / KLARMAN SUMMARY

1 SNAPSHOT

PriceCHF 120.2

Market Cap2.9B

2 BUSINESS

INFICON is an outstanding quality compounder with a wide moat in mission-critical vacuum and gas analysis instrumentation, protected by switching costs, technical expertise, and long-standing customer relationships in semiconductor fabs. The FY2024 results confirmed the business quality: $671M revenue, 20.3% operating margin, 31.2% ROE, $88M FCF, and a fortress balance sheet with $74.9M net cash and 72.4% equity ratio. However, at CHF 120.20 (35.6x P/E), the stock trades 5-33% above our fair value estimate of CHF 90-115. The 2025 guidance of $660-710M revenue with ~20% margins does not justify the current premium. While the business is excellent, price discipline demands waiting for a semiconductor cycle downturn or market correction to create a 20%+ margin of safety entry around CHF 80-90.

3 MOAT WIDE

Switching costs (CE/CC protocols at semiconductor fabs make vendor changes extremely costly), specialized technical expertise (250+ R&D staff, 7.7% of sales in R&D, 100+ products in 25 years), brand reputation (TSMC Supplier Recognition, Lam Research Excellence Award, R&D 100 Award), niche scale economies

4 MANAGEMENT

CEO: Oliver Wyrsch

Excellent - CHF 21/share dividend (51% payout, 19yr streak since 2006), disciplined R&D (7.7% of sales), conservative acquisitions (only $2.3M FabTime in 2024), minimal buybacks. CEO compensation 10.3x average employee (very reasonable).

5 ECONOMICS

20.3% Op Margin

31.3% ROIC

31.2% ROE

35.6x P/E

0.088B FCF

Net Cash Debt/EBITDA

6 VALUATION

FCF Yield3%

DCF Range90 - 115

Overvalued by 5-33% above fair value range of CHF 90-115

7 MUNGER INVERSION

Kill Event	Severity	P()	E[Loss]
Semiconductor cycle recession (51% of revenue from Semi & Vacuum Coating, could decline 30-40% in severe downturn)	HIGH	-	-
China/geopolitical market access loss (49% of sales from Asia-Pacific, US-China decoupling risk)	MED	-	-

8 KLARMAN LENS

Downside Case

Semiconductor cycle recession (51% of revenue from Semi & Vacuum Coating, could decline 30-40% in severe downturn)

Why Market Right

Deep semiconductor recession combined with US-China decoupling could cut revenue 30-40%; General Vacuum already declined -20.4% in 2024, signaling broader industrial weakness; 2025 guidance ($660-710M, ~20% margin) implies flat-to-slight-decline, not growth

Catalysts

Semiconductor cycle upturn expected H2 2026 (AI/HBM/advanced logic investment wave); AI-driven semiconductor capex boom 2026-2028 could add 20-30% to Semi segment; EV battery testing growth: ELT Vmax and electrolyte detection for mass production; FabTime acquisition (Jan 2024) adds smart manufacturing software capabilities; Security & Energy segment +20.5% growth, public sector demand strong

9 VERDICT WAIT

A Quality Fortress - $74.9M net cash, 72.4% equity ratio, $116.5M operating cash flow, zero net debt, current ratio 2.76

Strong BuyCHF 70

BuyCHF 85

Fair ValueCHF 115

Do not buy above CHF 110. Accumulate at CHF 80-90, Strong Buy below CHF 70. Current price of CHF 120.20 is overvalued.

10 MACRO RESILIENCE +3

Neutral Required MoS: 25%

Monetary

Geopolitical

Technology

Demographic

Climate

Regulatory

Governance

Market

-3

Key Exposures

AI/Semiconductor CapEx +9 Primary beneficiary of AI-driven semiconductor manufacturing buildout. Vacuum instrumentation essential for chip fabrication. Imminent timing amplifies impact.
Energy Transition Manufacturing +2 EV batteries and solar panels require vacuum processes. Additional demand driver beyond semiconductors.
Valuation Cycle Risk -3 Semiconductor equipment valuations elevated. If AI CapEx cycle peaks, multiple compression likely.

IFCN is well-positioned with strong technology tailwinds (+9 from AI infrastructure) that outweigh valuation cycle risks (-3). Total score +3 indicates neutral-to-positive macro environment. The key question is AI CapEx cycle timing - Inficon benefits now but faces multiple compression if/when spending normalizes. Standard 25% margin of safety appropriate given positive but cycle-dependent positioning. Monitor semiconductor CapEx trends closely.

🧠 ULTRATHINK Deep Philosophical Analysis

IFCN - Ultrathink Analysis

1. The Core Question

We are not asking "is INFICON a quality company?" The 31% ROE, 20%+ operating margins, fortress balance sheet, and 19-year dividend streak answer that decisively. The real question is far more uncomfortable: At 35.6x earnings, are we paying a fair price for quality -- or are we paying a premium for the illusion that quality protects against cycles?

The FY2024 results confirmed every aspect of the bull case. Revenue held at $671M despite a challenging environment. Gross margins expanded to 47.1%. Net income grew 6.7% to $112.8M. The balance sheet strengthened to a net cash position of $74.9M with a 72.4% equity ratio. By every operational metric, INFICON is executing beautifully.

And yet the stock has risen to CHF 120.20, a 23% appreciation since December 2025, pushing the P/E to 35.6x. The market is not pricing operational excellence -- it already knew about that. The market is pricing semiconductor cycle hopes. And semiconductor cycle hopes, by definition, are uncertain.

2. Moat Meditation

INFICON's moat deserves serious contemplation because it is genuinely unusual. Most industrial companies claim switching costs; INFICON's switching costs are enforced by physics and protocol.

In a semiconductor fab running at full capacity, a single contamination event can destroy millions of dollars in wafers. The measurement instruments monitoring vacuum integrity, gas composition, and leak detection are not accessories -- they are the nervous system of the fabrication process. The "Copy Exactly/Change Control" protocols at major fabs mean that once an INFICON instrument is qualified in a process recipe, removing it requires re-qualification of the entire process. No rational fab manager would risk yield to save a few thousand dollars on instrumentation.

This is not brand loyalty. This is physics-enforced lock-in.

But here is the uncomfortable truth that the moat analysis must confront: switching costs protect against substitution during normal operations. They do not protect against demand destruction. When TSMC or Samsung or Intel freezes capex, they do not replace INFICON instruments -- they simply do not order new ones. The installed base generates some service revenue, but the growth engine stalls.

The FY2024 results illustrated this precisely. Semi & Vacuum Coating grew 9% (cycle hope), while General Vacuum declined 20.4% (cycle reality). The same company, the same moat, two very different stories depending on where the capex cycle stands.

The moat is wide. The moat is durable. The moat does not prevent cyclical revenue swings.

3. The Owner's Mindset

Would Buffett own INFICON for 20 years? Almost certainly yes -- at the right price.

The business passes every Buffett quality test. ROE consistently above 15% (31.2% in 2024, driven by margins not leverage). Free cash flow generation is strong ($88M in 2024). The balance sheet is a fortress. Management compensation is reasonable (CEO at 10.3x average employee). The anchor shareholder (Frey family at 19.6%) provides stability. The dividend has been paid since 2006 and grows.

But Buffett would not pay 35.6x earnings. His great purchases -- Coca-Cola in 1988, American Express in 1964, Apple in 2016 -- all came at moments when quality was temporarily mispriced. Buffett's genius is not in identifying quality (most people can do that). His genius is in waiting for quality to be available at a discount.

At CHF 120.20, INFICON is quality at a premium. At CHF 80, it would be quality at a discount. The difference between those two prices is not a rounding error -- it is the difference between a market-rate return and a Buffett-style return.

4. Risk Inversion

Charlie Munger would start here: "Tell me where this investment could kill me, so I never go there."

Scenario 1: The Semiconductor Winter (25% probability, -35% impact) Semiconductor capex cycles are not gentle. The 2008-2009 downturn saw 30-40% revenue declines at semi equipment companies. INFICON survived -- revenue fell from $288M (2008) to $237M (2010) before recovering. But the stock halved. At 35.6x P/E, a cyclical downturn would trigger multiple compression on top of earnings decline. A 30% earnings drop combined with P/E compression to 20x would mean a 60% stock decline. Quality does not prevent this.

Scenario 2: China Decoupling (15% probability, -25% impact) 49% of sales come from Asia-Pacific. If semiconductor export controls expand to include process monitoring instruments, or if China develops competitive domestic alternatives, INFICON could lose 15-20% of revenue permanently. The opening of an Innovation Center in Taiwan and service centers across Asia shows management is aware of this risk, but awareness is not protection.

Scenario 3: The Valuation Trap (40% probability, -20% impact) The most likely risk is simply that CHF 120.20 is a local high. The stock hit CHF 150.80 in June 2024 (pre-split equivalent) before declining 14% by year-end. It now trades at CHF 120.20 in February 2026, below the ATH of CHF 213.87 equivalent. Buying at these levels means buying after a significant rally with limited upside to previous peaks on a trailing basis.

5. Valuation Philosophy

Klarman would say: "The margin of safety is the central concept of investment." At CHF 120.20, there is no margin of safety. The stock trades above every conservative valuation method:

DCF (9% discount, 6% growth): CHF 95-110 fair value
Owner Earnings at 12x: CHF 92
Owner Earnings at 15x: CHF 115
Peer comparison: CHF 100-115

The Graham Number confirms the overvaluation. Even at generous multiples, the stock should not trade above CHF 115.

This is not a criticism of the business. This is a statement about price. Seth Klarman ran Baupost to extraordinary returns not by buying great businesses at any price, but by insisting on margin of safety even for great businesses. He would walk away from INFICON at CHF 120.20 without hesitation.

The 2025 guidance reinforces this assessment. Management expects $660-710M in sales with ~20% operating margins. Even at the high end ($710M, $142M operating income), this implies roughly $115M net income or about $4.70 per post-split share. At CHF 120.20, that is 25.6x forward earnings -- still premium for a cyclical business.

6. The Patient Investor's Path

The opportunity in INFICON is not now. The opportunity is in the future, when one of these events creates a genuine entry:

Semiconductor recession -- When fabs freeze capex, INFICON's stock will follow. Buy at CHF 70-85.
Market-wide correction -- In a 2022-style selloff, quality small caps in Switzerland can fall 30-40%. The 2022 low was CHF 633 (pre-split ~CHF 63). That was a generational entry.
Earnings disappointment -- If General Vacuum weakness spreads to Semi & Vacuum Coating, a revenue miss could trigger 15-20% decline.
Dividend yield rises to 3%+ -- At CHF 70 (CHF 2.10 post-split dividend), yield reaches 3%, providing income floor while waiting.

The key insight: INFICON's quality is structural. Its cycles are temporary. When cycles turn, quality persists but price collapses. That is the moment to act.

7. The Soul of This Business

Strip away the multiples, the cycles, the geopolitics. What is INFICON at its irreducible core?

INFICON is precision's prerequisite. Before a chip is fabricated, the vacuum must be monitored. Before a refrigerant is charged, the system must be leak-tested. Before a chemical weapon is detected, the air must be analyzed. INFICON does not make the products -- it enables the confidence that products will work.

This is a business that matters. When CERN runs experiments at the frontier of physics, INFICON instruments monitor the vacuum. When ITER pursues fusion energy, INFICON measures the gas composition. When NASA launches missions, INFICON ensures seal integrity. These are not marketing claims -- they are documented relationships from the 2024 annual report.

The soul of this business is invisible verification. It lives in the background, ensuring that foreground achievements are possible. That soul will persist for decades.

But souls do not set stock prices. Cycles, sentiment, and valuation multiples set stock prices. And right now, the price does not respect the cyclicality inherent in the business.

The precision remains essential. The moat remains wide. The management remains disciplined. The balance sheet remains a fortress. The price, however, is wrong.

Wait for the measuring stick to be measured at its own fair value. CHF 80-90 is the price where quality meets prudence. At CHF 120.20, only quality is present. Prudence requires patience.

INFICON Holding AG (IFCN.SIX) - Investment Analysis

Analysis Date: February 21, 2026 (Updated from December 25, 2025) Current Price: CHF 120.20 (post 10:1 split) Market Cap: CHF 2.94B (~USD 3.2B) Exchange: SIX Swiss Exchange

Executive Summary

Investment Thesis (3 Sentences)

INFICON is a world-class instrumentation company with a dominant position in vacuum and gas analysis technology, serving mission-critical applications in semiconductor manufacturing, HVAC/R, and security. The company demonstrates exceptional financial quality with 31% ROE, 20%+ operating margins, 72% equity ratio, and consistent free cash flow generation -- confirmed by the detailed FY2024 results (March 2025) showing $671M revenue, $112.8M net income, and $116.5M operating cash flow. At CHF 120.20, the stock now trades at 35.6x trailing earnings, well above fair value (CHF 90-115), requiring patience for a more attractive entry.

Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Assessment
Revenue (2024)	$671.0M	Flat YoY but record-level
Operating Margin	20.3%	Excellent, consistent >20%
EBITDA Margin	23.1%	Expanding, record high
Net Margin	16.8%	Best-in-class
ROE	31.2%	Exceptional
Equity Ratio	72.4%	Fortress balance sheet
FCF (2024)	$88.1M	Strong cash generation
Net Cash	$74.9M	Zero net debt
Dividend Yield	~1.75% (CHF 21/share)	Growing, well-covered
P/E (TTM)	35.6x	OVERVALUED - above fair range
EV/EBITDA	25.0x	Premium valuation

Investment Decision

RECOMMENDATION: WAIT (Stock overvalued -- need 25-30% pullback)

Action Zone	Price (CHF)	Rationale
Strong Buy	< 75	30%+ MOS, rare opportunity
Accumulate	80-90	15-25% below fair value
Hold Zone	90-115	Fair value range
Trim/Reduce	> 120	Getting extended
Current Price	120.20	OVERVALUED - above fair value

PHASE 0: Opportunity Identification

Why Does This Opportunity Exist?

No obvious mispricing - INFICON trades at a fair valuation for a quality compounder
Cyclical exposure - Semiconductor capex cycles create volatility
Swiss listing - Less liquid than US-listed peers, potentially overlooked by US investors
Small cap - ~$2.6B market cap limits institutional interest

Assessment: This is not a deep value situation. At CHF 120.20 (35.6x P/E), the stock is now above fair value. The opportunity will arise during the next semiconductor downturn or market correction. INFICON is a quality compounder best bought on dips during cyclical troughs. The 23% price increase since December 2025 has eliminated the limited margin of safety that existed.

PHASE 1: Risk Analysis (Inversion)

"How Could This Investment Lose 50%+ Permanently?"

1. Semiconductor Cycle Risk - MEDIUM-HIGH

Risk: 51% of revenue from Semi & Vacuum Coating market
Scenario: Deep semiconductor recession (like 2008-2009) could cut revenues 30-40%
Probability: 20% in any given 5-year period
Impact: 30-40% revenue decline, but company has survived prior cycles
Mitigation: Strong balance sheet, diversified end markets, lean cost structure

2. Technological Disruption - LOW

Risk: New measurement/detection technology makes INFICON products obsolete
Scenario: Quantum sensors, new AI-based monitoring replaces traditional instruments
Probability: 5-10% over 10 years
Impact: Gradual erosion rather than sudden disruption
Mitigation: INFICON invests 7.7% of sales in R&D, 250 people dedicated to innovation

3. China/Geopolitical Risk - MEDIUM

Risk: 49% of sales from Asia-Pacific, significant China exposure
Scenario: US-China decoupling, export restrictions on semiconductor equipment
Probability: 30% of meaningful disruption
Impact: Could lose 10-20% of revenue in worst case
Mitigation: Diversified manufacturing footprint, local production in multiple regions

4. Competitive Pressure - LOW-MEDIUM

Risk: Larger competitors (MKS Instruments, Brooks Automation) or Chinese entrants
Scenario: Price war, technology gap closes
Probability: 15%
Impact: Margin compression from 20% to 15%
Mitigation: Strong IP, customer relationships, service network, switching costs

5. Key Customer Concentration - LOW

Risk: Dependence on major semiconductor equipment OEMs
Assessment: Revenue is diversified across multiple end markets and customers
Probability: Low - no single customer appears to dominate
Mitigation: Four distinct target markets, broad customer base

Bear Case Summary (3 Sentences)

"INFICON is 50% exposed to volatile semiconductor capex which could decline 30-40% in a severe recession. With half the revenue from Asia-Pacific, geopolitical tensions could restrict market access. The premium valuation (~19x P/E) leaves limited margin of safety if growth disappoints."

Pre-Defined Sell Triggers

Thesis Break: Operating margin falls below 15% for 2+ consecutive years
Moat Erosion: Loss of top-2 market position in any core segment
Management Failure: Significant related-party transactions or accounting irregularities
Valuation: Stock exceeds CHF 150 (50%+ above intrinsic value)

PHASE 2: Financial Analysis

5-Year Financial Performance (AR 2024, p.3)

Year	Revenue ($M)	Op Income ($M)	Op Margin	Net Income ($M)	ROE
2020	397.8	61.9	15.6%	49.3	22.8%
2021	515.8	100.4	19.5%	80.3	33.8%
2022	581.3	111.6	19.2%	88.5	33.4%
2023	673.7	135.2	20.1%	105.7	34.2%
2024	671.0	136.0	20.3%	112.8	31.2%

CAGR (2020-2024):

Revenue: 14.0%
Operating Income: 21.7%
Net Income: 23.0%

DuPont ROE Decomposition (2024)

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Financial Leverage
31.2% = 16.8% × 1.27 × 1.38

Components:
- Net Profit Margin: 16.8% (112.8/671.0) - Excellent
- Asset Turnover: 1.27 (671.0/528.0) - Efficient
- Financial Leverage: 1.38 (528.0/382.0) - Conservative

Assessment: ROE is driven primarily by high profitability, not leverage. This is the highest quality form of ROE.

Owner Earnings Calculation (2024)

Owner Earnings = Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx - ΔWorking Capital

Net Income:                    $112.8M
+ Depreciation & Amortization:  $19.1M (approx)
- Maintenance CapEx:           -$15.0M (est 50% of total capex)
- ΔWorking Capital:            -$5.0M (normalized)
= Owner Earnings:               ~$112M

Owner Earnings per Share: ~$45.84

Valuation Analysis

Current Market Data (Feb 21, 2026):

Share Price: CHF 120.20 (~$135 USD at 0.89 USD/CHF)
Shares Outstanding: 24,451,610 (post 10:1 split)
Market Cap: CHF 2.94B (~USD 3.30B)

Valuation Methods

Method	Value per Share (CHF)	MOS at CHF 120
Graham Number	√(22.5 × 4.61 × 15.63) × 0.89 = CHF 113*	6% premium
Owner Earnings (12x)	4.6 × 12 = CHF 55 (pre-split $46 × 12)*	N/A*
Owner Earnings (15x)	4.6 × 15 = CHF 69 (pre-split $46 × 15)*	N/A*
DCF (8% discount, 5% growth)	CHF 95-110	9-21% PREMIUM
Peer Comparison	CHF 100-115	4-17% PREMIUM

*Note: Per share values are post-split (1/10 of original).

DCF Valuation (Conservative)

Assumptions:

Owner Earnings Year 1: $112M
Growth Years 1-5: 6% (below historical, 2025 guidance: $660-710M)
Growth Years 6-10: 4%
Terminal Growth: 2.5%
Discount Rate: 9% (WACC proxy)

Present Value of Cash Flows:
Year 1-5:   $481M
Year 6-10:  $456M
Terminal:   $1,340M
Total PV:   $2,277M

Per Share Value (post-split): $93 USD (~CHF 104)

Intrinsic Value Range: CHF 90-115 per share (post-split)

Current Price Assessment:

At CHF 120.20, stock trades 5-33% ABOVE fair value range
Margin of Safety: NEGATIVE (stock is overvalued)
The stock has rallied 23% since Dec 2025, entirely on sentiment/cycle hopes
2025 guidance ($660-710M sales, ~20% margin) does not justify premium
Recommendation: WAIT -- need CHF 80-90 for adequate entry

PHASE 3: Moat Analysis

Moat Sources Identified

1. Switching Costs - HIGH

INFICON instruments are integrated into semiconductor fab processes
"Copy Exactly/Change Control" (CE/CC) protocols at major fabs require identical equipment
Changing measurement vendors risks yield loss on multi-billion dollar production
Metric: Customer retention appears very high (not explicitly disclosed)

2. Technical Know-How / Specialized Expertise - HIGH

25 years of accumulated expertise in vacuum and gas analysis
250+ R&D staff, 7.7% of revenue invested in R&D
100+ new products developed since inception
Serves extreme precision applications (semiconductor fabs, CERN, NASA, ITER)
Metric: Consistent 20%+ operating margins indicate pricing power

3. Reputation & Brand - MEDIUM-HIGH

"Benchmark supplier of best-in-class products" positioning
Awards: R&D 100 Award, TSMC Supplier Recognition, Lam Research Supplier Excellence
Long relationships with leading OEMs (Lam Research, ASML, Applied Materials implied)
Metric: Top 1-2 position in all target markets (AR 2024, p.48)

4. Scale Economies (Niche) - MEDIUM

~$670M revenue allows for global R&D, manufacturing, and service network
Not the largest player globally, but significant in specialized niches
Lean manufacturing excellence recognized

Moat Durability Assessment

Threat	Severity	Timeline	Mitigation
Technology disruption	2/5	10+ years	Heavy R&D investment, innovation pipeline
Chinese competition	3/5	5-10 years	Technical lead, CE/CC requirements, service network
Larger competitor acquisition	2/5	3-5 years	Swiss ownership structure, unlikely target
Customer vertical integration	1/5	Long-term	Specialized equipment, not core to customers

10-Year Moat Trajectory: STABLE to WIDENING

Semiconductor complexity continues to increase, requiring more sophisticated metrology
AI/automation trends benefit process control and smart manufacturing software
High switching costs protect installed base

PHASE 4: Management & Incentive Analysis

Leadership Team

CEO: Oliver Wyrsch - President & CEO

Long-tenured at INFICON
Share ownership: 1,151 shares (post-split: 11,510)

CFO: Matthias Tröndle - Group CFO since 2008

16+ years with company
Share ownership: 618 shares (post-split: 6,180)

Board of Directors Ownership (AR 2024, p.106)

Member	Role	Shares Owned	Notes
Dr. Beat E. Lüthi	Chairman	1,706	Founder involvement?
Beat Siegrist	Member	14,770	Significant holder
Lukas Winkler	Member	4,637
Vanessa Frey	Member	234	Via KWE Beteiligungen AG
Dr. Reto Suter	Member	158
Total Board		21,505	~0.9% of company

Total Management + Board: 23,274 shares = ~0.95% of company

Assessment: Management owns ~1% of company - modest but aligned. Stock-based compensation program in place with 3-4 year vesting/blocking periods.

Capital Allocation Track Record (5 Years)

Use of Capital	2024	2023	Assessment
CapEx	$28.4M	$23.4M	Growth investment
R&D	$51.5M	$48.5M	Maintaining tech lead
Dividends	$55M	$48M	Growing, sustainable
Acquisitions	$2.3M	$0	Disciplined, small bolt-ons
Buybacks	Minimal	Minimal	Focus on dividends

Dividend Policy:

CHF 21 proposed for 2024 (up from CHF 20)
Payout ratio: ~45% of net income
Growing dividend streak since 2006

Assessment: Excellent capital allocation - reinvesting in growth, returning excess to shareholders, conservative leverage.

PHASE 5: Catalyst Analysis

Potential Catalysts

Catalyst	Timeline	Probability	Impact
Semiconductor cycle upturn	H2 2026	55%	+15-25% revenue
AI-driven capex boom (HBM, advanced logic)	2026-2028	50%	+20-30% revenue
1:10 share split (completed April 2025)	Done	100%	Improved liquidity
EV battery testing growth	Ongoing	70%	+10% to RAC segment
FabTime acquisition integration	2025-2026	80%	Smart manufacturing synergies
Acquisition (target or acquirer)	1-3 years	20%	+30-50% premium
Dividend increase	Annual	80%	Modest positive

No-Catalyst Assessment

Even without specific catalysts, INFICON should compound at ~8-12% annually through:

Organic revenue growth (GDP+ in target markets)
Margin expansion from operating leverage
Dividend yield (~2%)
Share count stability

Required Margin of Safety without Catalyst: 20-25%

PHASE 6: Decision Synthesis

Investment Scorecard

Criterion	Score (1-10)	Weight	Weighted
Business Quality	9	25%	2.25
Moat Durability	8	20%	1.60
Financial Strength	10	15%	1.50
Management Quality	8	15%	1.20
Valuation	3	15%	0.45
Catalyst Presence	6	10%	0.60
Total		100%	7.60/10

Expected Return Probability Tree (from CHF 120.20)

Scenario	Probability	3-Year Return	Weighted
Bull (Semi upturn + AI boom)	25%	+30%	+7.5%
Base (Steady growth)	45%	+5%	+2.3%
Bear (Recession)	25%	-30%	-7.5%
Disaster (China loss)	5%	-50%	-2.5%
Expected 3-Year Return			-0.2%

Annualized Expected Return: ~0% + 1.75% dividend = ~1.75% total (INADEQUATE)

Position Sizing

Position Size = Base × (MOS/Target MOS) × (Quality/100) × (1-Risk) × Catalyst Mult.

At CHF 120.20:
- MOS: NEGATIVE (stock above fair value)
- Quality Score: 80
- Risk Score: 0.25
- Catalyst Mult: 0.9

Position Size = 0% (no position - stock overvalued)

Recommendation: Stock is overvalued at 35.6x P/E. Quality is excellent but price is wrong. WAIT for 25-30% pullback.

Buy Prices

Price Level (CHF)	Action	Rationale
120.20 (current)	WAIT / DO NOT BUY	Above fair value, negative MOS
100-110	Watch closely	Approaching fair value
85-95	Start position (1-2%)	10-15% MOS emerging
75-85	Accumulate (3%)	20-25% MOS, attractive entry
< 70	Full position (4-5%)	30%+ MOS, rare opportunity

Final Recommendation

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                     INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION                   │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Company: INFICON Holding AG        Ticker: IFCN.SIX            │
│ Current Price: CHF 120.20          Date: Feb 21, 2026          │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ VALUATION SUMMARY                                               │
│ ┌─────────────────────────┬─────────────┬─────────────────────┐│
│ │ Method                  │ Value/Share │ vs Current Price    ││
│ ├─────────────────────────┼─────────────┼─────────────────────┤│
│ │ DCF (Conservative)      │ CHF 95-110  │ 9-21% PREMIUM       ││
│ │ Owner Earnings (12x)    │ CHF 92      │ 31% PREMIUM         ││
│ │ Owner Earnings (15x)    │ CHF 115     │ 4% PREMIUM          ││
│ │ Peer Comparison         │ CHF 100-115 │ 4-17% PREMIUM       ││
│ └─────────────────────────┴─────────────┴─────────────────────┘│
│                                                                 │
│ INTRINSIC VALUE ESTIMATE: CHF 100-110                          │
│ MARGIN OF SAFETY: NEGATIVE (-5 to -20%)                        │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ RECOMMENDATION:  [ ] BUY  [ ] HOLD  [X] WAIT  [ ] SELL         │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ STRONG BUY PRICE:        CHF 70 (30% below IV)                 │
│ ACCUMULATE PRICE:        CHF 85 (20% below IV)                 │
│ FAIR VALUE:              CHF 100-110                           │
│ TAKE PROFITS PRICE:      CHF 130 (20% above IV)                │
│ SELL PRICE:              CHF 150 (40% above IV)                │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ POSITION SIZE: WAIT - Do not buy above CHF 110                 │
│ CATALYST: Semiconductor cycle upturn (H2 2026)                 │
│ PRIMARY RISK: Semiconductor capex cycle + current overvaluation │
│ SELL TRIGGER: Op margin <15% for 2+ years; loss of #1-2 pos    │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Monitoring Metrics

Metric	Current (2024)	Threshold	Action if Breached
Operating Margin	20.3%	< 15%	Re-evaluate moat
Revenue Growth (3yr)	+14% CAGR	< 5%	Check market position
R&D % of Sales	7.7%	< 5%	Moat erosion concern
Equity Ratio	72.4%	< 50%	Balance sheet weakening
Dividend Cover	2.2x	< 1.5x	Dividend at risk

Segment Detail (FY2024 -- AR 2024 p.3-4)

Semi & Vacuum Coating (50.7% of sales -- $339.9M, +9.0%)

Record results in 3 of 4 quarters, driven by AI megatrend
Asia largest contributor with double-digit growth
New product launches: Transpector CPX, FabTime software (acquired Jan 2024)
Lam Research Supplier Excellence Award received

General Vacuum (23.3% -- $156.3M, -20.4%)

Significant decline from record 2023 levels
Demand softened for solar applications particularly in Asia
Market normalization after pandemic-era elevated demand

Refrigeration, AC & Automotive (19.9% -- $133.8M, +1.7%)

Stable despite EV sector market volatility
Booming Asian air conditioning/refrigeration markets
New products: ELT Vmax (battery leak detector), I-Guide3D 350 (robotic)

Security & Energy (6.1% -- $40.9M, +20.5%)

Record sales, robust double-digit growth across all regions
Large public sector orders, normalized supply chains
HAPSITE CDT for chemical detection in field environments

Compensation Analysis (AR 2024 p.30-35)

CEO Oliver Wyrsch (2024)

Base salary: CHF 445K
Short-Term Incentive (STI): CHF 240K (cash bonus, 80% on Operating Income, 20% strategic)
Long-Term Incentive (LTI): CHF 241K (restricted shares, 3-year blocking)
Total compensation: CHF 1,113K
CEO-to-average-employee ratio: 10.3x (very reasonable)
STI achievement: 96.6% of target (near full achievement)

Board Total: CHF 779K (5 members, CHF 800K approved)

Chairman: CHF 315K (2/3 cash, 1/3 shares)
Board members: CHF 104-128K each
All shares subject to 3-year mandatory holding period

Anchor Shareholder

Vanessa Frey's family (KWE Beteiligungen AG): 19.6% of share capital
Beat Siegrist: 14,770 shares (significant personal holding)
No related-party transactions in 2024 or 2023

Sources

Primary Documents (Downloaded)

INFICON Annual Report 2024 (PDF, 114 pages) -- extracted text + tables
INFICON Annual Report 2023 (PDF)
INFICON Annual Report 2022 (PDF)
Historical Stock Prices - EODHD (2020-2025, 1508 records)
Dividend History - EODHD (2019-2025)
StockAnalysis.com: 5-year income statement, balance sheet, cash flow
CompaniesMarketCap: Historical prices and annual returns

Web Sources

INFICON IR (ir.inficon.com): Financial results, corporate governance
INFICON news: FY2024 detailed results (March 13, 2025)
Q4 2024 earnings call summary: management outlook, guidance
Market research: Helium vacuum leak detector market ($1.37B, CAGR 7.9%)

Key Citations

Revenue & Financials: AR 2024, pages 3-4
Business Overview: AR 2024, pages 1-2, 6-9
Letter to Shareholders: AR 2024, pages 10-12
Compensation Report: AR 2024, pages 30-35
Board/Management Ownership: AR 2024, page 35 (section 11)
Consolidated Financial Statements: AR 2024, pages 80-95
Sustainability/Risk: AR 2024, pages 38-77

Analysis prepared using Warren Buffett value investing methodology with emphasis on first-principles reasoning, margin of safety, and long-term competitive positioning. Updated February 2026 with FY2024 detailed results and current market pricing.