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KKR

KKR & Co Inc

$114.26 102B market cap February 1, 2026
KKR & Co Inc KKR BUFFETT / MUNGER / KLARMAN SUMMARY
1 SNAPSHOT
Price$114.26
Market Cap102B
2 BUSINESS

KKR is a high-quality alternative asset manager with a Wide moat built on 48 years of brand reputation, deep LP relationships, and scale that enables participation in mega-deals. The firm has transformed from a PE shop into a diversified platform spanning private equity ($175B), credit ($240B+), infrastructure ($77B), and insurance (Global Atlantic $250B+), reducing cyclicality while creating synergies. At $114, shares trade at ~24x forward FRE following a 30% correction from highs, offering reasonable value for a business that can compound earnings at 15-20% annually. Chuck Akre's 11.5% position validates the fee-earning AUM growth thesis as KKR sits at early stages of its "fundraising super cycle" with private wealth (K-Series) just beginning to scale and strategic holdings dividends set to compound to $1.1B+ by 2030. The opportunity exists because GAAP accounting obscures true earnings power, cyclical headwinds have hit sentiment, and complexity deters casual investors.

3 MOAT WIDE

48-year track record, blue-chip brand attracts LPs and deal flow, $614B AUM enables mega-deals, Global Atlantic provides permanent capital, deep relationship network with pensions/sovereigns/CEOs

4 MANAGEMENT
CEO: Scott Nuttall (Co-CEO with Joe Bae)

Excellent - Growing FRE organically, integrating GA, building strategic holdings, modest dividends and buybacks

5 ECONOMICS
31% Op Margin
7.7% ROE
48.2x P/E
6 VALUATION
DCF Range105 - 120

At fair value (95-105% of IV)

7 MUNGER INVERSION
Kill Event Severity P() E[Loss]
Credit cycle downturn could hit both credit funds and Global Atlantic simultaneously HIGH - -
Higher-for-longer rates compressing PE exit multiples and extending holding periods MED - -
8 KLARMAN LENS
Downside Case

Credit cycle downturn could hit both credit funds and Global Atlantic simultaneously

Why Market Right

Recession triggering credit defaults across funds and GA; Sustained high rates keeping M&A subdued; Global Atlantic underwriting losses

Catalysts

North America PE fund final close (2026-2027) - tracking ahead of expectations; M&A market recovery driving carry realizations; Capital Group partnership launch H1 2025 - mass affluent access; Private wealth K-Series scaling to $100B+ (currently $18B); Strategic Holdings dividend growth: $350M (2026), $700M (2028), $1.1B (2030); Interest rate normalization enabling multiple expansion

9 VERDICT WAIT
A Quality Strong - GA overcapitalized, $10.9B embedded gains, 23.6% insider ownership
Strong Buy$85
Buy$100
Fair Value$120

Initiate 1% starter position on weakness, scale to 3% below $100

🧠 ULTRATHINK Deep Philosophical Analysis

KKR - Deep Philosophical Analysis

Buffett/Munger/Klarman Style Thinking February 1, 2026

The Core Question: What Makes This Business Special?

At its heart, KKR is in the business of compounding relationships. Not capital. Not assets. Relationships.

The entire alternative investment industry is built on trust - the trust that wealthy institutions place in a small number of firms to deploy their capital into illiquid, long-duration investments. This trust is not easily given and even less easily revoked. When the California State Teachers' Retirement System commits $500 million to a KKR fund, they are not making a one-year decision. They are entering into a 12-15 year partnership, and the decision to do so passed through multiple investment committees, consultants, and governance reviews.

This is the moat. Not KKR's balance sheet. Not their spreadsheet models. Not even their past returns (though those matter). The moat is the accumulated trust of 48 years of being a serious steward of other people's money.

Charlie Munger would call this "sitting on one's ass" investing. Once established, the business earns fees year after year without having to convince anyone to buy anything. The commitments are made. The capital calls go out. The management fees flow in. The only question is whether you keep earning this trust.

Moat Meditation: The Self-Reinforcing Flywheel

The most durable competitive advantages are those that strengthen with use. KKR possesses such a flywheel, and it spins across three dimensions:

The LP Flywheel:

  • Strong returns attract more capital
  • More capital enables larger deals with less competition
  • Larger deals provide negotiating leverage
  • Leverage improves returns
  • Strong returns attract more capital...

KKR has returned more capital than they've called from North American PE LPs for 8 consecutive years. This is not luck. This is the flywheel at work. When you return capital at good IRRs, you get the next call. When you get the next call, you see better deals. When you see better deals, you make better returns.

The Relationship Flywheel:

  • 48 years of CEO relationships
  • CEOs who've done deals with KKR call when they have new deals
  • Better deal flow means better selection
  • Better selection means better returns
  • Better returns strengthen relationships...

This is almost impossible to replicate. A new entrant cannot manufacture the fact that their team has sat across the table from Fortune 500 CEOs for five decades. They cannot create the personal trust that comes from navigating recessions, crises, and successions together.

The Platform Flywheel:

  • $614B AUM across PE, credit, infra, real estate, insurance
  • Scale enables cross-selling to LPs
  • Cross-selling creates stickier relationships
  • Sticky relationships enable new product launches
  • New products attract more AUM...

This is KKR's modern evolution. The traditional PE model had a ceiling. But by adding credit ($240B), infrastructure ($77B), and insurance (Global Atlantic), KKR has transformed from a fund manager into a permanent capital vehicle with multiple growth vectors.

The Owner's Mindset: Would Buffett Own This for 20 Years?

Let me think about this through Warren's lens:

Understandable Business? Yes, at its core. KKR takes money from institutions, invests it in companies and assets, charges fees along the way, and shares in the profits. The accounting is complex, but the economics are simple: AUM x fee rate = revenue, minus costs = FRE. Everything else is optionality.

Durable Competitive Advantage? Yes. Trust and relationships compound over decades. Brand reputation in private markets matters enormously - LPs are committing capital they cannot touch for 10+ years. They need to believe in their GP.

Management I Trust? This is where I pause. The founders (Kravis and Roberts) are exceptional but aging. The Co-CEO structure (Nuttall and Bae) is unproven over a full cycle. The 23.6% insider ownership is reassuring, but succession is always a risk in people-intensive businesses.

However, the partnership culture KKR has built is itself an asset. When Munger says "show me the incentive, I'll show you the outcome," KKR's structure passes the test. Partners eat their own cooking. They co-invest alongside funds. Their wealth is tied to long-term performance, not short-term asset gathering.

Price I'd Pay? Here's where it gets interesting. At $114, KKR trades at roughly 24x forward FRE. For a high-quality business with 15-20% earnings growth potential, that's not unreasonable. But it's not cheap either.

Buffett would want a margin of safety. At $85-90 (17-18x FRE), there's a clear case. At $100 (20x FRE), it's fair. At $114, you're paying for quality but not getting the margin.

Would I hold for 20 years? Yes, if I bought at the right price. The business will be larger, more diversified, and more profitable in 2046. The secular trends toward private markets are real. The institutional shift is just beginning.

Risk Inversion: What Could Destroy This Business?

Munger teaches us to invert. So let me think about how KKR could fail:

1. The Private Markets Bubble Pops

What if we're at the peak of a multi-decade bubble in private equity? What if the return premiums versus public markets disappear? What if institutional allocators realize they've been paying for leverage and opacity?

This is the existential risk. It's also the most unlikely. Private markets have grown through multiple cycles. The information advantages persist. The governance benefits are real. But humility demands acknowledging we could be wrong.

2. Global Atlantic Becomes an Albatross

Insurance is a different beast than asset management. You're promising to pay claims decades from now. If you underwrite poorly or invest aggressively, you discover your mistakes far too late.

KKR believes GA gives them permanent capital and investment synergies. The bear case is that GA adds complexity, regulatory burden, and hidden tail risk. The 2024 integration seemed smooth, but insurance disasters take years to emerge.

3. The Talent Walks

KKR is a collection of talented people with expensive tastes. If the partnership economics break - if top performers feel underpaid or undervalued - they leave. And in this industry, they take relationships with them.

The founder culture has held for 48 years. But founders age. Cultures shift. This is a watching risk, not a current one.

4. Credit Cycle Devastation

KKR has $240B+ in credit assets. A severe recession could trigger widespread defaults, hitting both fund returns and Global Atlantic's investment portfolio simultaneously. This is a diversification illusion - both barrels of the shotgun point the same direction.

Valuation Philosophy: Is Price Justified by Quality?

This is where I must be honest. At $114, KKR is not cheap.

The market is efficient enough to recognize quality. KKR's FRE has grown 37% in 2024, the business model is diversifying positively, and management is executing well. Other investors see this.

What could make this cheap?

  1. A recession that temporarily crushes realizations - FRE would hold up but sentiment would crater
  2. Broader market selloff - High-beta stock would decline more than intrinsic value
  3. Specific bad news - GA loss, key departure, regulatory action

Without one of these, $114 is "quality at a quality price."

The Seth Klarman question: What's my edge? Why is this mispriced?

My answer: Complexity. GAAP earnings are meaningless for alt managers. Most investors screen on P/E ratios that don't reflect true economics. The FRE-based valuation is more favorable but requires work to understand.

But this edge may already be exploited. Chuck Akre owns 11.5%. The Baupost Group (Klarman's fund) has historically owned alt managers. The smart money knows this game.

The Patient Investor's Path: When and How to Act

Given all of this thinking, here is my framework:

At $114: Watch and wait. Quality is recognized. No margin of safety.

At $100: Begin accumulating. 20% below fair value. Still paying for quality but getting some cushion.

At $85: Buy aggressively. 30% margin of safety. Likely requires some crisis (market-wide or company-specific).

Position Size: Never more than 3-4% of portfolio. The business is wonderful but volatile. The accounting is complex. Humility about my understanding is warranted.

Holding Period: Indefinite, with annual reviews. Sell only if:

  • The moat is clearly narrowing (FRE margin <60% persistently)
  • Management loses my trust (key departures, ethical lapses)
  • Valuation becomes extreme (>35x FRE, >150% of fair value)

Final Meditation: The Nature of Compounding

Here is what I keep returning to:

KKR is a compounding machine. Not in the flashy sense - not the technology stock that can grow revenue 50% annually. But in the Buffett sense - a business that can grow intrinsic value at 12-15% annually for decades without much additional capital.

The FRE margin of 67-71% means every dollar of new management fees drops mostly to the bottom line. The strategic holdings will compound dividends from $300M (2026) to $1.1B+ (2030) without KKR needing to hire anyone new. The insurance liabilities are long-duration, providing stable spread income while KKR earns fees on the assets.

This is the kind of business Munger describes when he talks about "sitting on your ass." The flywheel spins. The relationships deepen. The capital flows in.

The question is never "will this business be valuable?" It's always "am I paying too much today?"

At $114, I am paying for quality. I would prefer to pay for quality and get a discount.

Patience.

"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." - Charlie Munger

Executive Summary

KKR is a global investment firm with $614 billion in Assets Under Management across private equity, credit, infrastructure, and real estate. The business has transformed from a private equity partnership into a diversified alternative asset manager with three synergistic segments: Asset Management, Insurance (Global Atlantic), and Strategic Holdings.

Investment Thesis (3 sentences): KKR possesses a durable moat built on brand reputation, relationship networks, and scale in alternative assets - a business that benefits from the secular shift toward private markets. At $114, the stock trades at 24x forward FRE after a 30% correction from highs, offering an attractive entry for a high-quality compounder with 20%+ earnings growth potential. The Chuck Akre 11.5% position validates the fee-earning AUM growth thesis as the firm sits at the early stages of its "fundraising super cycle."

Key Metrics Dashboard:

Metric Value Assessment
Current Price $114.26 -30% from 52-week high
Market Cap $102B Large cap
P/E (Trailing) 48x Elevated due to GAAP volatility
P/E (Forward - FRE basis) ~24x More meaningful for alt managers
FRE/Share (2024) $3.66 +37% YoY
AUM $614B +17% YoY
FRE Margin 67-71% Industry-leading
Dividend Yield 0.65% $0.74/share annual
Insider Ownership 23.6% Strong alignment

Decision: WAIT - High-quality business, accumulate on further weakness below $100

Phase 0: Opportunity Identification (Klarman)

Why Does This Opportunity Exist?

  1. Market Sentiment Shift: Alternative asset managers have corrected 25-35% from 2024 highs due to:

    • Higher-for-longer rate concerns impacting PE exit multiples
    • Slower M&A activity in 2023-2024 reducing carry realizations
    • Rotation from growth to value, hitting momentum names

  2. Complexity/Misunderstanding: KKR's financials are notoriously difficult to analyze:

    • GAAP earnings swing wildly based on investment mark-to-market
    • True earnings power (FRE + Insurance + Strategic Holdings = "Total Operating Earnings") is obscured
    • Market focuses on P/E ratios that are meaningless for alt managers

  3. Superinvestor Validation: Chuck Akre's 11.5% position signals deep research has been done. Akre is known for:

    • Holding <30 positions with extreme conviction
    • Multi-decade holding periods
    • Focus on return on invested capital and compounding

  4. Timing: The firm is at the "early stages of fundraising super cycle" per management:

    • Only 15% of 2024's $114B raised was from flagship funds
    • NA PE fund in early fundraising, tracking ahead of expectations
    • Private wealth (K-Series) scaling from $7B to $18B in 12 months

Source of Mispricing: Complex financials + cyclical headwinds + sector rotation create opportunity in a structurally advantaged business.

Phase 1: Risk Analysis (Inversion Thinking)

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." - Munger

How Could This Investment Lose 50%+ Permanently?

  1. Structural Shift Away from Private Markets (10% probability, HIGH impact)

    • If institutional allocators reduce PE/credit allocations
    • Pension fund liquidity constraints
    • Regulatory changes limiting PE ownership
    • Mitigation: 20-year secular trend toward alternatives unlikely to reverse; 2-3% pension allocation target vs <1% historically

  2. Sustained Higher Rates Crushing Exit Activity (20% probability, MEDIUM impact)

    • PE returns depend on buying cheap, improving, and selling at multiples
    • Higher rates compress exit valuations
    • Extended holding periods reduce IRRs
    • Mitigation: FRE now provides stable base; insurance + strategic holdings reduce dependence on realizations

  3. Global Atlantic Integration Risk (15% probability, MEDIUM impact)

    • Insurance operations add complexity and capital requirements
    • Potential regulatory changes affecting insurance-asset manager combos
    • Poor underwriting or investment losses at GA
    • Mitigation: KKR took GA to 100% ownership in 2024; integration progressing well

  4. Key Person Risk / Talent Exodus (10% probability, MEDIUM impact)

    • KKR's value depends on investment talent
    • Co-CEO structure creates succession questions
    • Compensation competition from other managers
    • Mitigation: Deep bench; partnership structure aligns incentives

  5. Private Credit Bubble / Credit Cycle Risk (25% probability, MEDIUM impact)

    • $240B+ in credit AUM, largest segment
    • Private credit spreads have compressed
    • Economic downturn could trigger defaults
    • Mitigation: Diversified across senior secured, asset-based finance; GA liabilities are long-duration

Bear Case (3 sentences for shorts):

"KKR trades at 24x forward FRE for a business with 45% annualized volatility and massive mark-to-market exposure. The 'private credit' boom is a late-cycle phenomenon, and rising defaults will hit both credit funds and Global Atlantic simultaneously. Management's strategic holdings experiment is a distraction from core competencies."

My Response: The bear case ignores that FRE is 67-71% margin recurring revenue, that Global Atlantic's liabilities are 7-10 year duration matched to private credit assets, and that strategic holdings has grown to $3.7B revenue/$900M EBITDA with increasing dividends expected ($300M by 2026, $700M by 2028, $1.1B by 2030).

Pre-Defined Sell Triggers:

  1. FRE margin falls below 60% for two consecutive years
  2. AUM growth turns negative for 3+ years
  3. Global Atlantic combined ratio exceeds 105% persistently
  4. Key executive departures (Co-CEOs or CFO Rob Lewin)
  5. Fundamental shift in institutional allocation away from alternatives

Phase 2: Financial Analysis

KKR-Specific Metrics (From Q3/Q4 2024 Earnings Calls)

Metric Q3 2024 Q4 2024 YoY Growth
Fee-Related Earnings/Share $1.12 $0.94 +24-32%
Annual FRE/Share - $3.66 +37%
ANI/Share $1.38 $1.32 +32-57%
Annual ANI/Share - $4.70 +38%
FRE Margin 71% 67% Stable
Total Operating Earnings/Share $1.47 $1.23 Record
Insurance Operating Earnings $308M $250M Run-rate
Management Fees $893M $906M +15-18%
Capital Markets Revenue $424M $270M Record year at $1B
AUM ~$600B ~$614B +17%
Gross Unrealized Carried Interest $7.9B - +40% YoY

Assets Under Management Breakdown

Segment AUM Growth Driver
Credit $240B+ Asset-based finance, direct lending
Private Equity ~$175B Core PE, Americas, Asia, Europe
Real Assets ~$120B Infrastructure ($77B), Real Estate
Other ~$80B Strategic holdings, strategic partnerships

Revenue Mix Quality

Total Operating Earnings (More Stable) = 80%+ of Pre-Tax

  • Fee-Related Earnings: Recurring management fees + transaction fees
  • Insurance Operating Earnings: Global Atlantic net investment spread
  • Strategic Holdings Operating Earnings: Dividends from 18 owned businesses

Investing Earnings (More Variable) = 20% of Pre-Tax

  • Realized Performance Income (Carry)
  • Realized Investment Income (Balance Sheet)

Balance Sheet Considerations

The GAAP balance sheet is distorted by Global Atlantic's insurance liabilities. Key observations:

  • Total Assets: $360B (includes $250B+ insurance liabilities)
  • Equity: $23.7B
  • Book Value: ~$30.54/share
  • P/B: 3.74x (reasonable for asset manager with high returns)
  • Debt/Equity: 12.6x (GAAP - misleading due to insurance)

True Leverage Analysis:

  • Asset Management segment has modest leverage
  • Global Atlantic maintains 257%+ SST ratio (overcapitalized)
  • Net cash from Strategic Holdings increasing

Valuation Analysis

Method 1: FRE Multiple (Primary)

  • FRE/Share 2024: $3.66
  • Expected 2026 FRE/Share: ~$5.00 (15% CAGR)
  • Appropriate multiple: 20-25x (high-quality recurring)
  • Fair Value: $100-125

Method 2: Total Operating Earnings Multiple

  • TOE 2024: ~$5.00/share
  • Expected 2026 TOE: ~$7.00/share
  • Appropriate multiple: 15-18x (blended quality)
  • Fair Value: $105-126

Method 3: Sum-of-Parts

Segment Earnings Multiple Value
Asset Mgmt FRE $3.3B 22x $72.6B
Insurance $1.0B (normalized) 10x $10.0B
Strategic Holdings $0.35B (2026E) 15x $5.3B
Balance Sheet $7.5B embedded gains 1x $7.5B
Total $95.4B
Per Share $107

Intrinsic Value Estimate: $105-120/share

Margin of Safety at $114: Minimal (0-5%)

Phase 3: Moat Analysis

Moat Sources

  1. Brand / Reputation (WIDE)

    • 48-year track record since 1976
    • "Blue chip" brand attracts both LPs and deal flow
    • First call on large complex transactions
    • Measurement: Ability to raise $114B in 2024 despite tough environment

  2. Relationship Network (WIDE)

    • Deep LP relationships with pensions, sovereigns, endowments
    • CEO/board relationships for deal sourcing
    • Long-standing banking relationships for financing
    • Measurement: 8 consecutive years returning more capital than calling in NA PE

  3. Scale (WIDE)

    • $614B AUM enables:
      • Larger check sizes for mega-deals
      • Diversification across strategies
      • Global presence (especially $70B Asia, $25B Japan)
    • Infrastructure: $77B AUM, up from $13B 5 years ago
    • Measurement: Record capital markets revenue of $1B in 2024

  4. Switching Costs (MODERATE)

    • LP commitments are 10-12 year lockups
    • GP change requires investor committee approval
    • Track record portability is limited
    • Measurement: 92%+ re-up rates in successive funds

  5. Vertical Integration (EMERGING)

    • Global Atlantic provides permanent capital ($250B+ liabilities)
    • Strategic Holdings provides operational expertise
    • Capital Markets synergies ($424M in single quarter)
    • Measurement: 100+ transactions contributed to Q3 2024 capital markets

Moat Durability Assessment

Threat Severity (1-5) Timeline KKR Mitigation
New entrants 2 5+ years Brand/track record barriers
Fee compression 3 Ongoing Move to permanent capital, carry
Technology disruption 2 10+ years Investing is relationship-driven
Regulatory change 3 3-5 years Diversified globally
LP power shift 2 Ongoing Strong performance keeps LPs loyal

10-Year Moat Trajectory: WIDENING

  • Global Atlantic integration adds permanent capital
  • Strategic Holdings reduces dependence on fundraising cycles
  • Asia/Infrastructure platforms scaling organically
  • Private wealth (K-Series) opens $100T+ addressable market

Phase 4: Management & Incentive Analysis

Leadership Team

Executive Role Tenure Notes
Henry Kravis Co-Executive Chairman Founder (1976) Deep relationship network
George Roberts Co-Executive Chairman Founder (1976) Operations expertise
Scott Nuttall Co-CEO Since 2021 Growth/strategic focus
Joe Bae Co-CEO Since 2021 Investment focus
Rob Lewin CFO Since 2017 Strong IR/communication
Craig Larson Head of IR Since 2006 Exceptional transparency

Insider Ownership

  • 23.6% insider ownership - Exceptional alignment
  • Partners have significant co-investment alongside funds
  • Stock compensation vests over long periods

Capital Allocation Track Record

Use of Capital Amount Quality Assessment
Dividends $612M (2024) 6% annual increase, sustainable
Buybacks $125M (2024) Modest, opportunistic
Strategic Holdings $1.1B (new) Building permanent equity
GA Investment N/A Already 100% owned

Munger's Question: "If I were management with these incentives, what would I do?"

Management is doing exactly what long-term shareholders would want:

  1. Growing fee-earning AUM organically
  2. Integrating insurance to create permanent capital
  3. Building strategic holdings for dividend compounding
  4. Maintaining high margins (67-71% FRE)
  5. Communicating clear long-term guidance (2030 strategic holdings $1.1B+)

Phase 5: Catalyst Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Catalyst Timeline Probability Impact
NA PE fund final close 2026-2027 80% +5-10%
M&A market recovery 2026 70% +15-20% (carry realizations)
Capital Group partnership launch H1 2025 90% Medium-term AUM growth
Private wealth scaling ($100B target) 2-3 years 70% +10-15%
Strategic Holdings dividend growth 2026-2030 85% Compound earnings growth
Interest rate cuts 2026 60% Multiple expansion

Negative Catalysts

Risk Timeline Probability Impact
Recession/credit cycle 12-24 months 30% -20-30%
Sustained high rates Ongoing 40% -10-15%
GA underwriting loss Any time 15% -10-20%

No Catalyst Assessment

Even without near-term catalysts, KKR compounds intrinsic value at 15-20% annually through:

  • Organic AUM growth
  • FRE expansion from operating leverage
  • Strategic holdings dividend scaling
  • Insurance earnings stability

Phase 6: Decision Synthesis

Valuation Summary

Method Value/Share vs $114
FRE Multiple (22x 2026E) $110 -4%
Total Operating Earnings (16x 2026E) $112 -2%
Sum-of-Parts $107 -6%
Intrinsic Value Estimate $110 -4%

Entry Price Calculation

Level Price P/FRE Rationale
Strong Buy $85 17x 30% MOS, Klarman standard
Accumulate $100 20x 20% MOS, quality premium
Fair Value $115 23x Market recognizes quality
Take Profits $145 29x Begin trimming
Sell $175 35x Fully valued

Expected Return Scenarios

Scenario Probability 3-Year Return Weighted
Bull (FRE grows 20%+, carry cycle) 25% +80% +20%
Base (FRE grows 15%, modest carry) 50% +40% +20%
Bear (FRE grows 10%, no carry) 20% +10% +2%
Disaster (recession, losses) 5% -30% -1.5%
Expected 3-Year Return +40.5%
Annualized ~12%

Position Sizing

Using framework formula:

  • Base Allocation: 3% (quality company)
  • MOS Adjustment: 0.8x (insufficient MOS at $114)
  • Quality Score: 85/100
  • Risk Score: 0.30 (volatility + complexity)
  • Catalyst Multiplier: 1.0 (multiple catalysts)

Position Size = 3% x 0.8 x 0.85 x 0.70 x 1.0 = 1.4%

Recommendation: Start 1% position, add to 3% below $100

Final Recommendation

+---------------------------------------------------------------+
|                    INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION                    |
+---------------------------------------------------------------+
| Company: KKR & Co Inc                    Ticker: KKR           |
| Current Price: $114.26                   Date: 2026-02-01      |
+---------------------------------------------------------------+
| VALUATION SUMMARY                                              |
| +------------------------+-----------+---------------------+   |
| | Method                 | Value/Shr | vs Current Price    |   |
| +------------------------+-----------+---------------------+   |
| | FRE Multiple (22x)     | $110      | -4% MOS             |   |
| | TOE Multiple (16x)     | $112      | -2% MOS             |   |
| | Sum-of-Parts           | $107      | -6% MOS             |   |
| +------------------------+-----------+---------------------+   |
|                                                                |
| INTRINSIC VALUE ESTIMATE: $110 (weighted average)              |
| MARGIN OF SAFETY: -4% (INSUFFICIENT)                           |
+---------------------------------------------------------------+
| RECOMMENDATION:  [ ] BUY  [ ] HOLD  [ ] SELL  [X] WAIT        |
+---------------------------------------------------------------+
| STRONG BUY PRICE:         $85  (30% below IV, 17x FRE)        |
| ACCUMULATE PRICE:         $100 (20% below IV, 20x FRE)        |
| FAIR VALUE:               $115                                 |
| TAKE PROFITS PRICE:       $145 (30% above IV)                 |
| SELL PRICE:               $175 (50%+ above IV)                |
+---------------------------------------------------------------+
| POSITION SIZE: 1% starter, scale to 3% at $100                |
| CATALYST: M&A recovery + PE fundraise + Capital Group launch  |
| PRIMARY RISK: Credit cycle / higher-for-longer rates          |
| SELL TRIGGER: FRE margin <60% for 2+ years                    |
+---------------------------------------------------------------+

Chuck Akre's Thesis Validation

Chuck Akre's 11.5% position aligns with his compounding philosophy:

  1. High ROIC: FRE margins of 67-71% = exceptional returns on fee-earning capital
  2. Reinvestment Runway: $614B AUM with private wealth at early innings ($18B vs $100B+ opportunity)
  3. Management Skill: 48-year track record, founder-led culture
  4. Balance Sheet Strength: GA provides permanent capital; strategic holdings growing

The Akre thesis is likely: KKR can compound FRE at 15-20% for the next decade as private markets continue gaining institutional share, private wealth opens a new TAM, and the insurance + strategic holdings model creates unique competitive advantages.

Sources Used

Source Key Data Extracted
AlphaVantage INCOME_STATEMENT Revenue, operating income, net income
AlphaVantage BALANCE_SHEET Assets, liabilities, equity
AlphaVantage CASH_FLOW Operating cash flow, dividends
AlphaVantage COMPANY_OVERVIEW Market cap, ratios, insider ownership
AlphaVantage EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIPT Q3 2024 FRE, ANI, AUM, strategic guidance
AlphaVantage EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIPT Q4 2024 Annual results, 2025-2030 outlook
AlphaVantage TIME_SERIES_DAILY_ADJUSTED Price history, 52-week range

Analysis Date: February 1, 2026