MBLY

Mobileye Global Inc.

$10.5 USD 8.5B market cap January 17, 2026

Mobileye Global Inc. MBLY BUFFETT / MUNGER / KLARMAN SUMMARY

1 SNAPSHOT

Price$10.5

Market CapUSD 8.5B

EVUSD 7.1B

Net DebtUSD -1.4B

Shares809M

2 BUSINESS

Mobileye is the global leader in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), providing EyeQ chips, perception software, and autonomous driving solutions to automotive OEMs. Revenue comes from hardware (EyeQ chips) sold to Tier 1 suppliers and OEMs, plus licensing and development fees for advanced systems like SuperVision and Chauffeur.

Revenue: USD 1.65B Organic Growth: -17.6% (2024 vs 2023, affected by inventory destocking)

3 MOAT NARROW

- Switching costs: 3-5 year OEM design cycles create lock-in; follow-on wins with all top 10 customers - Scale: 200M+ EyeQ chips shipped; $1B R&D amortized over massive volume - Data network: REM crowdsourced mapping improves with each vehicle - Intangibles: Deep OEM relationships, safety compliance expertise - Risk: End-to-end AI (Tesla) could commoditize perception stack

4 MANAGEMENT

CEO: Prof. Amnon Shashua (founder, since 1999)

Conservative, R&D-focused (40-50% of revenue). No dividends or buybacks. Discontinued unprofitable in-house LiDAR development (2024). Maintains strong cash position (~$1.4B). Intel controls 80% equity/99% voting - limits shareholder influence.

5 ECONOMICS

15-20% (adj, ex-impairment) Op Margin

Negative (heavy intangible amortization) ROIC

USD 0.32B FCF

Net cash position Debt/EBITDA

6 VALUATION

FCF/ShareUSD 0.39

FCF Yield3.7%

DCF RangeUSD 10 - 20

Base: 6% revenue growth, 15% FCF margin, 10% discount rate Bull: 15% revenue growth, 20% FCF margin (SuperVision/Chauffeur traction) Bear: Flat revenue, 10% FCF margin (competition pressure)

7 MUNGER INVERSION -30.7%

Kill Event	Severity	P()	E[Loss]
Tesla FSD achieves decisive superiority	-40%	20%	-8.0%
Intel forced sale/distressed exit	-25%	30%	-7.5%
China business collapses	-15%	40%	-6.0%
SuperVision design losses to competitors	-20%	25%	-5.0%
Gross margin compression	-12%	35%	-4.2%

Tail Risk: Multiple risks could compound: Intel exit triggers governance crisis while Tesla achieves breakthrough, causing OEM defections and talent flight. Combined scenario could result in -60-70% decline.

8 KLARMAN LENS

Downside Case

In a bear scenario, revenue stagnates at ~$1.7B as ADAS commoditizes and OEMs slow advanced product adoption. Intel dumps remaining stake at any price. Stock falls to tangible book value (~$2.80) representing -73% downside. However, positive FCF and net cash provide floor above liquidation.

Why Market Wrong

Market prices MBLY like a speculative startup despite: 1) dominant market share (200M+ chips), 2) $1.4B net cash, 3) $320M annual FCF, 4) design wins extending to 2030s. Intel overhang and GAAP losses from acquisition accounting obscure underlying profitability. P/B of 0.75x for dominant tech franchise.

Why Market Right

Bears argue: 1) End-to-end AI may obsolete compound AI approach, 2) Tesla's data advantage from 6M+ vehicles is insurmountable, 3) Chinese competition will crush margins, 4) OEMs will insource ADAS as chips commoditize, 5) Intel selling pressure continues indefinitely. Revenue already peaked at $2B.

Catalysts

- SuperVision/Chauffeur design wins from Western OEMs (2025) - Robotaxi commercial launch with VW (2026) - EyeQ7 production demonstrating compute efficiency (2027) - Intel completes exit, removing overhang

9 VERDICT WAIT

B- T3 Adaptable

Strong Buy$8

Buy$9

Sell$22

Mobileye is an attractively valued dominant franchise trading below book value (0.75x P/B) with net cash and positive FCF. However, Intel's controlling stake creates governance risk, Tesla competition threatens technological moat, and China volatility adds uncertainty. Wait for $8-9 entry or clear catalyst (major design win announcement) before building meaningful position.

🧠 ULTRATHINK Deep Philosophical Analysis

MBLY - Ultrathink Analysis

The Real Question

The question isn't "will Mobileye's stock go up?" That's Wall Street thinking. The real question is: In a world racing toward autonomous transportation, who captures the value - the silicon provider, the software creator, the data owner, or the vehicle manufacturer?

Mobileye sits at a fascinating inflection point. They're not just selling chips. They're selling a bet on the architecture of machine intelligence - the belief that "compound AI" (combining specialized models for perception, mapping, and decision-making) defeats "end-to-end AI" (Tesla's approach of one massive neural network learning everything).

The deeper capital allocation question: Do we believe autonomous driving will be dominated by a vertically integrated player with unprecedented data (Tesla) or a horizontal supplier model where specialists like Mobileye provide the "Intel Inside" for transportation?

This is ultimately a question about the nature of intelligence itself - is it better built from carefully orchestrated components, or does it emerge from scale and end-to-end learning?

Hidden Assumptions

What the market assumes:

Intel will continue pressuring the stock with sales
Tesla's approach will likely win (or at least dominate perception)
Chinese competition will erode margins
OEMs can and will eventually insource ADAS
The $2.8B goodwill impairment signals fundamental value destruction

What we assume in the bull case:

OEM design cycles create durable switching costs
Safety regulations will favor established, compliance-focused suppliers
Mobileye's "compound AI" approach will prove more capital-efficient
Robotaxi revenue will materialize by 2027
Intel's exit will ultimately be positive for governance

The most dangerous hidden assumption: That Mobileye's technology lead is durable. What if Tesla's neural network achieves a phase transition - a moment where end-to-end learning suddenly "gets it" and surpasses years of careful engineering? History is littered with companies that had technological leads until they didn't. Ask Nokia about smartphones. Ask Kodak about digital photography. The question isn't whether Mobileye is ahead today - it's whether their architectural approach has a ceiling that end-to-end AI doesn't.

The Contrarian View

For the bears to be completely right, this narrative must be true:

"Mobileye is the last generation of automotive technology - a supplier model destined for obsolescence. Tesla has already won because data compounds and they have 6 million vehicles collecting data while Mobileye has none. The 'compound AI' approach is cope - a way to justify their architecture when the real answer is more compute and more data. Chinese competitors will squeeze margins just as they did in smartphones and solar panels. OEMs will never give strategic control to a supplier for their most important technology. Intel's involvement ensures value will be extracted from, not created for, minority shareholders. The $2.8B impairment was management admitting the truth. In five years, Mobileye will be acquired at a distressed price or slowly fade into irrelevance as OEMs build their own systems with Nvidia chips."

The steelman is compelling because:

Network effects in data truly are powerful
End-to-end learning has consistently surprised with its capabilities
Chinese competition is real and relentless
Intel has a terrible track record of value creation for stakeholders
The smartphone supply chain analogy is ominous - suppliers got commoditized

Simplest Thesis

Mobileye is a net-cash, FCF-positive, dominant franchise trading at 0.75x book value because Intel's selling pressure and GAAP accounting obscure that 200 million vehicles trust their technology to prevent accidents.

If you believe ADAS is essential infrastructure rather than a feature, and that safety certification creates moats, Mobileye at $10.50 is mispriced.

Why This Opportunity Exists

The opportunity exists because of a triple-layer disconnect:

Layer 1: Corporate Structure Confusion Intel's 80% ownership with 99% voting control makes MBLY feel like a tracking stock rather than a real company. Institutional investors avoid governance nightmares. Index funds can't buy meaningfully due to limited float. The stock trades in no-man's land.

Layer 2: Accounting vs. Economic Reality GAAP shows $3B losses. Reality shows $400M operating cash flow. The disconnect comes from $500M annual amortization of intangibles from Intel's 2017 acquisition - pure accounting fiction that shows up as real losses. Casual investors see "unprofitable tech company" when the reality is "highly cash-generative hardware business with software characteristics."

Layer 3: Narrative Capture The market narrative is "Tesla wins autonomy." Every MBLY analysis starts with "but what about Tesla?" This creates a reflexive discount - investors demand a margin of safety against Tesla disruption regardless of fundamental analysis. It's priced in twice: once in valuation, once in sentiment.

The opportunity corrects when:

Intel completes its exit (removes overhang)
A major Western OEM announces SuperVision (validates technology)
Robotaxi commercializes (proves beyond ADAS)
Market recognizes cash flow reality (fundamental re-rating)

What Would Change My Mind

These are not vague concerns but concrete, falsifiable statements:

Tesla FSD intervention rate falls below 50,000 miles by end of 2026 (vs. current ~10,000 for Mobileye advanced systems). This would prove end-to-end superiority.
Two or more top-10 OEMs cancel Mobileye advanced product contracts in favor of in-house or competitor solutions within the next 18 months.
EyeQ7 benchmarks show less than 2x improvement over EyeQ6 while competitors show 3x+ gains. This would signal loss of silicon leadership.
Operating cash flow turns negative for two consecutive quarters without clear temporary explanation. This would invalidate the "profitable despite GAAP" thesis.
Amnon Shashua departs without a clear succession plan. The company's technology vision is deeply tied to his leadership.
Intel sells controlling stake to a strategic buyer with misaligned interests (Chinese company, hostile PE). This would fundamentally change the governance thesis.

If any of these occur, the investment thesis requires fundamental reassessment regardless of stock price.

The Soul of This Business

Mobileye exists because autonomous transportation is a safety problem first and an AI problem second.

This is the essential insight that Amnon Shashua understood in 1999 and that many in Silicon Valley still don't fully grasp. You can't ship "move fast and break things" when breaking things means killing people. The soul of Mobileye is obsessive safety engineering - the RSS (Responsibility-Sensitive Safety) framework, the PGF (Probabilistic Guardian Framework), the relentless focus on corner cases.

Tesla's soul is different - it's about velocity, iteration, and learning from scale. Both approaches have merit. But Mobileye's approach is why they have relationships with conservative German OEMs who would never ship beta software to customers. It's why they have design wins extending to 2030. It's why regulators trust them.

The fragility comes from this same source: if the market decides that Tesla's approach is "good enough" and safety certification becomes commoditized, Mobileye's moat evaporates. Their competitive advantage assumes that OEMs and regulators value their approach to safety. If safety becomes a checkbox rather than a differentiator, the business model breaks.

The inevitability comes from the opposite scenario: if autonomous driving proves harder than expected (it usually is), if regulators tighten requirements (they usually do), if liability concerns grow (they're growing), then Mobileye's approach becomes more valuable, not less. Companies seeking to ship autonomous features will need a partner who can navigate the safety gauntlet.

The ultimate question about Mobileye's soul: Is safety a feature or the foundation? If it's a feature, they're overvalued at any price. If it's the foundation, they're dramatically undervalued.

The answer determines whether this is a value trap or a generational opportunity.

"The people who are crazy enough to think they can change transportation are the ones who do."

But changing transportation requires not just vision but the patience to get safety right. Mobileye has spent 25 years on that patience. The market is pricing them like they have 25 months.

That's either a profound opportunity or a profound misunderstanding. The difference is whether you believe safety compounds like technology - slowly, then all at once.

Executive Summary

Investment Thesis (3 Sentences)

Mobileye is the dominant global leader in ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) with 200+ million EyeQ chips shipped, protecting its position through deep OEM relationships, proprietary silicon, and a unique REM crowdsourced mapping database. The company generates strong operating cash flow ($400-500M annually) despite GAAP losses driven by non-cash intangible amortization from Intel's 2017 acquisition. However, Intel's ~80% controlling stake with 99%+ voting power creates significant governance risk, the autonomous driving market is intensely competitive with Tesla and Chinese players, and the stock trades at 4.4x sales despite negative ROE - making valuation challenging.

Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Assessment
Price	$10.50	Near 52-week low
Market Cap	$8.5B
EV/Revenue (TTM)	3.75x	Moderate
P/B	0.75x	Below book value
Forward P/E	26.3x	Assuming profitability
Revenue (TTM)	$1.94B
Gross Margin	45-50%	Strong
Operating Margin	Negative (ex-impairment: 15-20%)
FCF (2024)	$319M	Strong
Net Debt	Net Cash ~$1.4B	Fortress
ROE	-25.6% (impairment) / -2.8% normalized	Weak
Beta	0.56	Low volatility

Decision Summary

Category	Rating	Notes
Quality	B-	Strong technology, weak returns, governance issues
Moat	Narrow (Widening?)	Switching costs + scale, but tech disruption risk
Financial Strength	A-	Net cash, strong FCF, but GAAP losses
Management	B	Founder-led, but Intel control
Valuation	Attractive	0.75x book, 4.4x sales for dominant player
Risk	Elevated	Intel overhang, Tesla competition, China volatility

Recommendation: WAIT - Attractive valuation but significant risks. Consider small starter position if price drops to $8-9 (25%+ margin of safety from current depressed levels).

Phase 0: Opportunity Identification

Why Does This Opportunity Exist?

Intel Overhang (Forced/Distressed Selling)
- Intel owns ~80% of MBLY and has been selling shares (July 2025 secondary offering)
- Intel is in financial distress and may need to sell more Mobileye stake
- Creates ongoing selling pressure and governance uncertainty
- Market discounting due to lack of true independence
Sector Rotation Away from AV/ADAS
- EV/autonomous vehicle stocks out of favor after 2021-2022 hype
- Investors burned by Rivian, Lucid, Lordstown bankruptcies
- "Autonomous driving is always 5 years away" fatigue
2024 Headwinds (Temporary)
- $2.8B goodwill impairment in Q3 2024 (non-cash)
- Revenue decline 2023→2024 due to customer inventory destocking
- China volatility (domestic OEM volumes down 50%+)
Misunderstood Financials
- GAAP losses mask underlying profitability
- Non-cash D&A of ~$500M/year from Intel acquisition accounting
- Operating cash flow ($400M) far exceeds net income
Complexity/Stigma
- Dual-class share structure limits shareholder rights
- Intel relationship creates uncertainty
- Technology complex for generalist investors to evaluate

Why Market May Be Wrong

The market is pricing Mobileye like a speculative tech startup (negative earnings, uncertain future) rather than:

A dominant franchise with 200M+ chips shipped
50%+ market share in ADAS
Design wins extending into early 2030s with 9/10 top global OEMs
Positive and growing free cash flow
Net cash balance sheet

Phase 1: Risk Analysis (Inversion)

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." - Munger

How Could This Investment Lose 50%+ Permanently?

Tesla FSD becomes the industry standard
- Tesla's end-to-end neural network approach proves superior
- OEMs license Tesla technology rather than use Mobileye
- Mobileye's "compound AI" approach becomes obsolete
Chinese competitors win globally
- Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame, Haomo AI scale outside China
- Chinese OEMs (BYD, Geely) integrate vertically
- Price competition destroys Mobileye's margins
Intel forced sale at distressed price
- Intel sells stake to strategic buyer (Chinese company?)
- Governance becomes hostile to minority shareholders
- Company taken private at low premium
Regulatory shift against ADAS
- Major autonomous vehicle accident causes regulatory backlash
- Liability laws make OEMs reluctant to adopt advanced systems
- Safety recalls damage brand permanently
Technology disruption
- LiDAR-free approach fails to achieve L3+ autonomy
- Camera-based perception hits fundamental limits
- Need to completely redesign architecture

Bear Case Summary (If I Were Short)

"Mobileye is a legacy hardware supplier being disrupted by Tesla's software-first approach. Their 'compound AI' is just a marketing term for piecemeal improvements while Tesla has true end-to-end learning at scale. Intel will continue dumping shares to fund its own turnaround, creating perpetual overhang. The China business is collapsing as domestic players take share. Revenue has already peaked at $2B and will decline as OEMs bring ADAS in-house. The stock is a value trap heading to $5."

Top 10 Risks Quantified

Risk	Probability	Severity	Expected Loss	Mitigation
Tesla FSD dominance	20%	-40%	-8.0%	OEM diversification, regulatory compliance
Intel forced sale	30%	-25%	-7.5%	Cash position, founder control of operations
China collapse	40%	-15%	-6.0%	Already small (20% of rev), Western focus
SuperVision design losses	25%	-20%	-5.0%	Multiple OEM engagements
Margin compression	35%	-12%	-4.2%	Technology leadership, chip efficiency
AV winter (funding dries up)	25%	-15%	-3.8%	Positive FCF, no external funding needed
Key person risk (Shashua)	10%	-30%	-3.0%	Deep bench, institutionalized IP
Robotaxi delays	50%	-5%	-2.5%	Not priced in currently
Macro recession	30%	-8%	-2.4%	Low beta, essential safety
Regulatory setback	15%	-10%	-1.5%	Compliance culture, RSS framework
Total Expected Downside			-44.0%

Pre-Defined Sell Triggers

Thesis Break: Tesla FSD achieves <1 critical intervention per 100K miles (vs Mobileye ~10K currently disclosed)
Moat Erosion: 2 or more major OEMs cancel Mobileye contracts for Chinese or in-house solutions
Management Failure: Amnon Shashua leaves without clear succession
Intel Actions: Intel sells to hostile buyer or extracts value destructively
Technology: EyeQ7/8 benchmarks show no improvement over competitors

Phase 2: Financial Analysis

Return Metrics (DuPont Analysis)

Year	ROE	Net Margin	Asset Turnover	Equity Multiplier
2024	-25.6%	-186.8%	0.13x	1.04x
2023	-0.0%	-0.0%	0.13x	1.05x
2022	-0.5%	-4.4%	0.12x	1.05x
2021	-0.5%	-5.4%	0.09x	1.04x
2020	-1.3%	-20.3%	0.06x	1.04x

Note: 2024 ROE distorted by $2.8B goodwill impairment. Normalized ROE (excluding impairment) approximately -2.8%.

Owner Earnings Calculation

Owner Earnings = Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx - WC Changes

For 2024:
GAAP Net Income:        -$3,090M
+ D&A:                  +$506M
+ Goodwill Impairment:  +$2,800M (non-cash, non-recurring)
= Adjusted Net Income:  $216M

Operating Cash Flow:    $400M
- CapEx:               -$81M
= Free Cash Flow:       $319M

Owner Earnings (Normalized): ~$250-350M annually

Valuation Trinity

1. Liquidation Value (Floor)

Current Assets:           $2,174M
- Total Liabilities:      -$492M
= Net Current Assets:     $1,682M
/ Shares Outstanding:     809M
= NCAV per share:         $2.08

Tangible Book:
Total Equity:            $12,087M
- Goodwill:              -$8,200M
- Intangibles:           -$1,609M
= Tangible Book:          $2,278M
/ Shares:                 809M
= Tangible Book/Share:    $2.82

Liquidation Value: $2.08 - $2.82 per share (74-80% below current price)

2. Going Concern Value (DCF)

Assumptions:

Revenue 2026E: $2.0B (6% growth from $1.89B guidance)
Long-term revenue growth: 8% (ADAS adoption + advanced products)
Terminal growth: 3%
Normalized FCF margin: 15-18%
Discount rate: 10% (low beta, but tech risk)

Base Case DCF:

Year 1-5 FCF (avg): $350M growing to $500M
Terminal Value: $500M × 1.03 / (0.10 - 0.03) = $7.4B
NPV of Cash Flows: ~$2.5B
NPV of Terminal: ~$4.6B
Total Enterprise Value: ~$7.1B
+ Net Cash: $1.4B
Equity Value: $8.5B
Per Share: $10.50 (matches current price)

Bull Case (15% revenue growth, 20% FCF margin):

Equity Value: ~$16B
Per Share: ~$20

Bear Case (flat revenue, 10% FCF margin):

Equity Value: ~$5B
Per Share: ~$6

3. Private Market Value

Recent comparable transactions:

Intel acquisition of Mobileye (2017): $15.3B (~8x revenue)
No recent pure-play ADAS acquisitions

Strategic Value Considerations:

To an OEM wanting in-house ADAS capability: 4-6x revenue = $8-12B
To a tech company (Apple, Nvidia): 5-8x revenue = $10-16B
Private equity (LBO): Limited due to R&D needs, negative earnings

Private Market Value: $10-16B ($12-20 per share)

4. Relative Valuation

Metric	MBLY	Nvidia (NVDA)	Qualcomm (QCOM)	Tesla (TSLA)
P/S	4.4x	28x	4.5x	8x
P/B	0.75x	45x	7x	14x
EV/Revenue	3.75x	27x	4.3x	7.5x
Gross Margin	45%	75%	56%	18%

Mobileye trades at a significant discount to semiconductor peers despite higher gross margin and dominant market position in ADAS.

Margin of Safety Calculation

Method	Value/Share	Current Price	Margin of Safety
NCAV	$2.08	$10.50	-404% (premium)
Tangible Book	$2.82	$10.50	-272% (premium)
DCF Base	$10.50	$10.50	0%
DCF Bull	$20.00	$10.50	47%
DCF Bear	$6.00	$10.50	-75% (premium)
Private Market	$15.00	$10.50	30%

Intrinsic Value Estimate: $12-15 per share (weighted average) Current Margin of Safety: 13-30%

Phase 3: Moat Analysis

Moat Sources

1. Switching Costs (Moderate-High)

Metric: Customer retention rate, design win duration

OEM design cycles are 3-5 years; switching mid-program extremely costly
Deep integration with OEM engineering teams
Follow-on wins with all top 10 customers (2022-2024)
Design wins extend into early 2030s

Score: 7/10

2. Scale Advantages (High)

Metric: Cumulative chips shipped, R&D amortization

200+ million EyeQ chips shipped (largest installed base)
$1B+ annual R&D amortized over massive volume
Data advantage: REM mapping from millions of vehicles
Manufacturing partnerships with STMicroelectronics

Score: 8/10

3. Network Effects (Moderate)

Metric: REM coverage, data improvement rate

REM crowdsourced mapping improves with more vehicles
More data → better AI → safer products → more sales → more data
But network effects not as strong as pure software platforms

Score: 5/10

4. Intangible Assets (Moderate)

Metric: Patent portfolio, brand recognition

Extensive IP portfolio in ADAS/AV
Strong brand with OEMs (trusted safety partner)
But no consumer brand awareness

Score: 6/10

Moat Durability Assessment

Threat	Severity (1-5)	Timeline	Company Mitigation
Tesla end-to-end AI	4	3-5 years	EyeQ7/8 development, compound AI approach
Chinese competitors	3	2-4 years	Western regulatory compliance, OEM relationships
OEM insourcing	3	5+ years	Technology leadership, cost efficiency
LiDAR disruption	2	3-5 years	Discontinued own LiDAR, camera-first proven
Regulatory change	2	2-3 years	RSS safety framework, compliance expertise

Moat Trajectory

Will this moat be wider or narrower in 10 years?

Arguments for WIDER:

Advanced products (SuperVision, Chauffeur) create higher switching costs
REM database grows with more vehicles
Robotaxi deployment creates operational moat
Regulatory complexity favors established players

Arguments for NARROWER:

End-to-end AI may commoditize perception
OEMs may insource with more capable chips
Chinese players may compete effectively

Assessment: Moat likely STABLE with potential to WIDEN if SuperVision/Chauffeur gain traction. Risk of narrowing if Tesla's approach proves definitively superior.

Moat Rating: NARROW (with uncertainty)

Phase 4: Management & Decision Synthesis

Management Assessment

CEO: Prof. Amnon Shashua (Founder)

Tenure: Founded company 1999, CEO since founding
Background: Computer vision pioneer, Hebrew University professor
Ownership: Through Intel structure, limited direct Class A
Capital Allocation: Conservative, R&D focused, no dividends/buybacks

Compensation Analysis:

CEO compensation aligned with technology company norms
Stock-based compensation ~$80-100M company-wide annually
No excessive perks or related party transactions disclosed

Capital Allocation Track Record:

R&D investment: Consistently 40-50%+ of revenue
M&A: Limited (discontinued LiDAR unit was internal development)
CapEx: Low ($70-100M/year) - fabless model
Cash management: Maintained strong cash position

Governance Concern: Intel's Class B shares with 10x voting rights mean minority shareholders have minimal influence. This is a significant negative.

Catalyst Analysis

Catalyst	Type	Timeline	Probability	Impact
SuperVision design win announcement	Internal	2025	60%	+20-30%
Intel stake reduction (positive)	External	2025-2026	40%	+15-20%
Robotaxi commercial launch	Operational	2026	50%	+30-50%
EyeQ7 production start	Operational	2027	70%	+15-20%
OEM advanced product ramp	Internal	2026-2027	50%	+25-40%

Catalyst Assessment: Multiple potential catalysts in 2025-2027, but timing uncertain. Lack of competitive pressure from Tesla allowing OEMs to delay decisions.

Position Sizing Formula

Position Size = Base × (MOS/Target) × (Quality/100) × (1-Risk) × Catalyst

Where:
- Base Allocation: 3% (standard)
- MOS/Target: 0.20/0.30 = 0.67 (below target)
- Quality Score: 65/100
- Risk Score: 0.44 (from risk analysis)
- Catalyst Multiplier: 0.85 (multiple catalysts but uncertain timing)

Position Size = 3% × 0.67 × 0.65 × (1-0.44) × 0.85
             = 3% × 0.67 × 0.65 × 0.56 × 0.85
             = 0.62%

Recommended Position: 0.5-1% starter position at current prices; increase to 2-3% if price drops to $8-9.

Expected Return Probability Tree

Scenario	Probability	3-Year Return	Weighted
Bull (AV leader)	15%	+150%	+22.5%
Base (execution)	40%	+50%	+20.0%
Modest (stagnation)	25%	+10%	+2.5%
Bear (competition)	15%	-30%	-4.5%
Disaster (obsolete)	5%	-70%	-3.5%
Expected Return	100%		+37.0%

Annualized Expected Return: ~11% over 3 years

Final Recommendation

+---------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                     INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION                        |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Company: Mobileye Global Inc.          Ticker: MBLY                  |
| Current Price: $10.50                  Date: 2026-01-17              |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------+
| VALUATION SUMMARY                                                    |
| +-------------------------+-------------+-----------------------+    |
| | Method                  | Value/Share | vs Current Price      |    |
| +-------------------------+-------------+-----------------------+    |
| | Tangible Book Value     | $2.82       | -73% (premium)        |    |
| | NCAV                    | $2.08       | -80% (premium)        |    |
| | DCF (Conservative)      | $10.50      | 0% MOS                |    |
| | DCF (Bull Case)         | $20.00      | 47% MOS               |    |
| | Private Market Value    | $15.00      | 30% MOS               |    |
| +-------------------------+-------------+-----------------------+    |
|                                                                      |
| INTRINSIC VALUE ESTIMATE: $13.00 (weighted average)                  |
| MARGIN OF SAFETY: 19%                                                |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------+
| RECOMMENDATION: [X] WAIT  [ ] BUY  [ ] HOLD  [ ] SELL               |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------+
| STRONG BUY PRICE:         $8.00 (40% below IV)                       |
| BUY PRICE:                $9.00 (30% below IV)                       |
| ACCUMULATE PRICE:         $10.50 (current - small starter OK)        |
| FAIR VALUE:               $13.00                                     |
| TAKE PROFITS:             $18.00 (40% above IV)                      |
| SELL:                     $22.00 (70% above IV)                      |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------+
| POSITION SIZE: 0.5-1% starter; scale to 2-3% at $8-9                 |
| CATALYSTS: SuperVision wins, Robotaxi 2026, EyeQ7                    |
| PRIMARY RISK: Intel overhang, Tesla competition, China volatility    |
| SELL TRIGGER: Tesla achieves <1 intervention/100K mi; Shashua leaves |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------+

What I Will NOT Sell On

Short-term price volatility
Intel selling additional shares (expected)
China revenue fluctuations
Quarter-to-quarter earnings misses
Negative analyst commentary

Monitoring Metrics

Metric	Current	Watch Level	Action
EyeQ quarterly volume	~9M	<7M	Investigate
Gross margin	45-50%	<40%	Concern
Operating cash flow	$100M+/qtr	<$50M	Concern
Design win announcements	Multiple	0 for 3 qtrs	Investigate
Intel stake	~80%	Full exit	Review
Tesla FSD intervention rate	~10K mi	<5K mi	Thesis review

Appendix: Source Documentation

Primary Sources

AlphaVantage MCP: Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow (2020-2024)
AlphaVantage MCP: Earnings Transcripts Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q2 2025, Q3 2025
AlphaVantage MCP: Company Overview
EODHD MCP: Historical stock prices (2022-2026)
SEC EDGAR: 10-K filings (CIK 0001910139)
Mobileye Investor Relations: ir.mobileye.com

Data Validation

Revenue cross-checked: AlphaVantage vs earnings call disclosures ✓
Cash position cross-checked: Balance sheet vs cash flow ✓
Share count cross-checked: Company overview vs balance sheet ✓

Analyst Consensus (for context only - not used in valuation)

Rating: 4 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell
Price Target: $18.33 average (75% above current)

Analysis completed: 2026-01-17 Framework: Buffett-Munger-Klarman Value Investing Analyst: Claude