VACN

VAT Group AG

CHF 384.4 11.5B market cap December 25, 2024

VAT Group AG VACN BUFFETT / MUNGER / KLARMAN SUMMARY

1 SNAPSHOT

PriceCHF 384.4

Market Cap11.5B

2 BUSINESS

Outstanding quality business at very expensive valuation. 70-77% market share, 36% ROIC, widening moat. But at 51x P/E and 48% above intrinsic value, paying for perfection in cyclical semiconductor business. Add to watchlist for significant correction.

3 MOAT WIDE

Technology Leadership (PRIMARY - STRONG): 500+ patents, 400 R&D engineers, 6% R&D spend. 132 specification wins in 2024 (record). 15% pricing premium vs competitors. Switching Costs (PRIMARY - STRONG): Valves specified into customer tools during 2-7 year design cycles. Once specified, earns revenue

4 MANAGEMENT

CEO: Urs Gantner

Dividends CHF 794M over 5 years (85% of FCF) - generous but sustainable. Capex CHF 260M (strategic capacity expansion). Zero M&A - conservative organic focus. Payout ratio 100%+ FCF aggressive but supported by fortress balance sheet. Insiders own ~10.2% of shares. No significant insider selling.

5 ECONOMICS

26.8% Op Margin

35.6% ROIC

35.6% ROE

62.8x P/E

0.183B FCF

50% Debt/EBITDA

6 VALUATION

FCF Yield1.6%

DCF Range200 - 350

Overvalued by ~10%

7 MUNGER INVERSION

Kill Event	Severity	P()	E[Loss]
Semiconductor cycle downturn (30% WFE decline)	HIGH	-	-
Chinese competition achieves quality parity	MED	-	-

8 KLARMAN LENS

Downside Case

Semiconductor cycle downturn (30% WFE decline)

Why Market Right

Semiconductor capex highly cyclical - 30% WFE decline highly probable within 5 years; At CHF 384 and 51x P/E, paying for perfection in cyclical business

Catalysts

No catalyst for undervaluation - stock is OVERVALUED; The relevant catalyst is a market correction creating entry point; WFE market recovery to $135B (2025-2027, 60% probability)

9 VERDICT WAIT

A+ Quality Moderate - 0.3x

Strong BuyCHF 200

BuyCHF 250

Fair ValueCHF 350

Strong Buy below 200, Accumulate below 250

10 MACRO RESILIENCE +1

Neutral Required MoS: 25%

Monetary

Geopolitical

Technology

Demographic

Climate

Regulatory

Governance

Market

-9

Key Exposures

AI/Semiconductor Manufacturing +12 VAT is the toll booth on advanced semiconductors. 70-77% market share in vacuum valves for EUV/advanced nodes. Every AI chip needs VAT.
Valuation Extreme -8 51x P/E leaves zero room for error. The ultrathink correctly identifies this as venture pricing for an industrial component.
WFE Cyclicality -3 Semiconductor equipment spending is cyclical. While AI provides structural tailwind, timing exposure remains.

VACN is the paradox of quality at any price. Extraordinary business (+12 AI tailwind from dominant market position) meets extraordinary valuation (-8 multiple compression risk). Total score +1 is deceptively neutral - it masks two extreme exposures that could dominate returns. The ultrathink correctly frames this: at CHF 384 you pay as if cycles don't exist and competitors never catch up. Standard 25% margin of safety insufficient at current price. WAIT for CHF 250-260 where semiconductor cyclicality is compensated. The valves are flawless; the valuation is not.

🧠 ULTRATHINK Deep Philosophical Analysis

VACN - Ultrathink Analysis

The Real Question

We're not asking "is VAT Group a great business?" The 70-77% market share, 33% ROE, and 500+ patents answer that. The real question is: When a valve maker trades at 51x earnings, are you buying the irreplaceable gatekeeper to semiconductor manufacturing—or paying venture prices for an industrial component?

The market sees VAT as either semiconductor picks-and-shovels play or AI megatrend beneficiary. Neither frame confronts the valuation paradox. The deeper question: If this business is truly irreplaceable—and it may be—why does the market only price it at 51x instead of 80x? And if 51x is the ceiling, what does that imply about the risks the market perceives?

Hidden Assumptions

Assumption 1: Vacuum is the only path to advanced semiconductors. Every EUV machine, every 3nm chip requires vacuum processing. The assumption is this is permanent. But examine the physics: what if atmospheric processing breakthroughs emerge? What if GAA or CFET manufacturing evolves differently? The assumption that vacuum is forever ignores that physics surprises us.

Assumption 2: 70-77% market share is stable. Dominant market share in a critical component sounds like a moat. The assumption is that share remains stable. But examine the incentive structure: when you control 77% of a critical component, customers have every reason to fund alternatives. ASML, TSMC, and Samsung have the resources. The assumption that share is stable ignores the revenge of captive customers.

Assumption 3: Specification wins create permanent revenue. 132 specification wins in 2024 sounds impressive. The assumption is that each win creates locked-in revenue for 10-15 years. But specification wins are forward-looking commitments. A semiconductor downcycle doesn't cancel the specification—it delays the revenue. The assumption that wins equal revenue ignores timing uncertainty.

Assumption 4: Cyclicality is temporary, quality is permanent. WFE spending cycles but VAT's quality persists. The assumption is that buying quality at any price works because the business compounds. But examine the math: at 51x earnings, you need 15+ years of 10%+ growth to justify the multiple. A single multi-year downturn destroys that math. The assumption that quality defeats cycles ignores the power of time value.

The Contrarian View

For the bears to be right, we need to believe:

WFE spending plateaus or declines — AI chip demand saturates, smartphone/PC refresh slows.
Customer vertical integration begins — TSMC or ASML decides control of critical components matters more than specialization.
Chinese competition reaches quality parity — 25% probability over 10 years compounds to real risk.
Multiple compresses to 20x — Market decides industrial components deserve industrial multiples.

The probability of WFE plateau? Perhaps 25%. Customer integration? 15%. Chinese competition? 25%. Multiple compression? 50% (almost certain eventually). Combined expected loss through multiple compression alone is 25%+.

Simplest Thesis

VAT is the toll booth on the only road to advanced semiconductors—but the toll price already includes the next decade's traffic.

Why This Opportunity Exists

The opportunity doesn't exist at current prices.

At CHF 384, VAT is 48% above intrinsic value (CHF 260):

AI narrative capture — Every semiconductor exposure gets bid up regardless of valuation.
Quality scarcity — Investors starved for quality pay any price for genuine moats.
Momentum — Near 52-week highs attract momentum capital.
Analyst coverage — Consensus price targets justify holding regardless of valuation.

The opportunity exists at CHF 200-250, where semiconductor cyclicality is compensated and the precision of the timing bet is reduced.

What Would Change My Mind

Stock drops 35% to CHF 250 — Price creates margin of safety for cycle exposure.
WFE market expands to $140B+ — AI-driven demand acceleration exceeds expectations.
New adjacency success — ALD valve products expand addressable market by 20%+.
Competitor exit or failure — Market share consolidates further toward 80%+.
Customer co-investment — Major OEM takes equity stake, aligning interests.

Some possible within 24-36 months. Current position is watchlist at CHF 250 and below.

The Soul of This Business

Strip away the market share, the patents, the semiconductors. What is VAT at its core?

VAT is perfection at the molecular level. When a chip manufacturer creates the vacuum needed for deposition, a single particle can destroy a wafer worth thousands of dollars. VAT valves achieve contamination levels measured in parts per billion. They open and close millions of times without leaking. They survive plasma, heat, and corrosive gases. This is engineering taken to its limit.

The soul is in the seal. Inside every VAT valve is a metal-to-metal seal that creates a perfect barrier between atmospheric pressure and near-absolute vacuum. No O-ring, no polymer, no organic material—just machined metal meeting machined metal with tolerances measured in microns. This seal is what makes 3nm chips possible.

But here's the uncomfortable truth: perfection commands perfection prices. At 51x earnings, you pay as if VAT's perfection is itself without flaw. You pay as if cycles don't exist. You pay as if competitors never catch up. You pay as if the future is as precisely controlled as a VAT valve seal.

At CHF 200, you buy molecular perfection at prices where imperfection is priced in.

At CHF 384, you buy assuming the business trajectory is as predictable as the valve performance.

The valves are flawless. The valuation is not.

The market share is dominant. The margin of safety is absent.

Executive Summary

Investment Thesis (3 Sentences)

VAT Group AG is the dominant global leader in vacuum valves for semiconductor manufacturing with a ~70-77% market share, benefiting from secular growth in semiconductors driven by AI, digitalization, and chip miniaturization. The company has exceptional economics (33% ROE, 31% EBITDA margin, 36% ROIC) and a widening moat through technology leadership, 500+ patents, and deep customer integration. However, at 51x P/E with cyclical exposure to semiconductor capex, the stock requires a significant pullback to offer adequate margin of safety.

Key Metrics Dashboard

Metric	Value	Assessment
Current Price	CHF 384.40	Near 52-week high (CHF 404)
P/E Ratio	51.5x	Expensive (vs 20x fair)
EV/EBITDA	36x	Expensive
P/B Ratio	16.6x	Very Expensive
ROE (TTM)	33.0%	Excellent
ROIC	35.6%	Outstanding
EBITDA Margin	31.2%	Strong
FCF Margin	19.4%	Strong
Dividend Yield	1.6%	Low
Net Debt/EBITDA	0.3x	Very Low Leverage
Market Share	70-77%	Dominant

Recommendation

WAIT - Outstanding quality business at very expensive valuation. Add to watchlist for significant market correction.

Price Level	Action
Strong Buy	CHF 200 (48% discount)
Accumulate	CHF 250 (35% discount)
Current Price	CHF 384
Take Profits	CHF 500

Phase 0: Opportunity Identification

Why Does This Opportunity Exist?

Current State: This is NOT currently a mispriced opportunity. The stock trades at a premium reflecting:

Dominant market position (70-77% share)
Exposure to AI/semiconductor megatrends
High profitability (30%+ ROE)
Recovery from 2023 trough

What Would Create an Opportunity:

Semiconductor capex cycle downturn (cyclical - typically 12-18 month troughs)
Geopolitical disruption affecting China sales (19% of revenue from Americas, 67% APAC)
Customer concentration risk materializing
General market correction

Key Insight: VAT is a "quality trap" - the business quality is obvious to all, hence no margin of safety at current prices.

Phase 1: Risk Analysis (Inversion Thinking)

How Could This Investment Lose 50%+ Permanently?

Technology Disruption in Chip Manufacturing
- New vacuum-free manufacturing processes emerge
- Probability: Very Low (5%)
- Impact: Severe (-70%)
- Expected Loss: 3.5%
- Mitigation: 500+ patents, deep customer integration, 400+ R&D engineers
Customer Concentration / Supplier Replacement
- TSMC, Samsung, or Intel develop in-house valve capability
- Probability: Low (10%)
- Impact: High (-50%)
- Expected Loss: 5%
- Mitigation: High switching costs, tight specification integration, 2-7 year design cycles
Chinese Competition
- Chinese valve manufacturers achieve quality parity
- Probability: Medium (25% over 10 years)
- Impact: Medium (-30% due to margin compression)
- Expected Loss: 7.5%
- Mitigation: Technology lead, purity requirements, brand reputation with leading OEMs
Semiconductor Cycle Downturn
- Extended downturn in WFE spending
- Probability: High (60% within 5 years - cyclical certainty)
- Impact: Medium (-40% revenue decline, -50% stock decline temporarily)
- Expected Loss: Temporary - not permanent capital loss if position sized correctly
- Note: 2023 showed resilience (EBITDA margin stayed at 30%+)
Geopolitical/Trade War Escalation
- US-China decoupling fragments semiconductor supply chain
- Probability: Medium (30%)
- Impact: Variable (-20% to +20% depending on positioning)
- Expected Loss: Unclear - could be positive as supply chains diversify
- Mitigation: Manufacturing in Switzerland, Malaysia, Romania - geographically diversified

Bear Case (3-Sentence Summary)

VAT trades at 51x earnings for a business heavily dependent on cyclical semiconductor capex, with 67% of revenue from APAC where geopolitical tensions are rising. If WFE spending declines 30% in the next downturn (highly probable given cycle), VAT's earnings could fall 40%+, making the stock worth CHF 200-250 on a 20x multiple. At CHF 384, you're paying for perfection in a cyclical business.

Sell Triggers (Non-Price Based)

Market share drops below 60% in any two consecutive years
ROIC falls below 20% structurally (not cyclically)
Major customer (TSMC, ASML, Samsung) announces vertical integration into valves
R&D spending falls below 4% of sales
Management changes capital allocation to aggressive M&A

Phase 2: Financial Analysis

5-Year Financial Summary (CHF Millions)

Metric	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	CAGR
Revenue	692	901	1,146	885	942	8.0%
EBITDA	181	292	407	271	294	12.9%
Net Income	128	217	307	190	212	13.5%
Operating CF	173	240	294	256	241	8.6%
Free Cash Flow	147	197	228	187	183	5.7%
Capex	26	43	66	69	56	21.1%
Dividends Paid	120	135	165	187	187	11.7%

Margin Analysis

Metric	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	5Y Avg
Gross Margin	32.4%	37.3%	41.0%	61.7%	66.4%	47.8%
EBITDA Margin	26.2%	32.4%	35.5%	30.6%	31.2%	31.2%
Operating Margin	24.5%	29.7%	32.3%	24.4%	26.8%	27.5%
Net Margin	18.5%	24.1%	26.8%	21.5%	22.5%	22.7%
FCF Margin	21.2%	21.8%	19.9%	21.1%	19.4%	20.7%

Assessment: Excellent margin profile. EBITDA margin target of 32-37% maintained through cycle. FCF conversion robust at 60%+ of EBITDA.

Return Metrics (DuPont Analysis)

2024 ROE Decomposition:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Financial Leverage
33% = 22.5% × 0.73 × 1.72

Where:
- Net Margin: 211.8/942.2 = 22.5%
- Asset Turnover: 942.2/1,294.7 = 0.73x
- Financial Leverage: 1,294.7/753.9 = 1.72x

ROIC Calculation:

ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital
35.6% = 222.6 / 625 (mid-year invested capital)

NOPAT = EBIT × (1 - Tax Rate)
NOPAT = 250.2 × (1 - 0.17) = 207.7M

ROE Trend: Consistently above 25%, peaked at 44% in 2022 boom

Balance Sheet Strength

Metric	2024	Assessment
Total Assets	CHF 1,295M
Shareholders' Equity	CHF 754M
Net Debt	CHF 84M	Minimal
Net Debt/EBITDA	0.3x	Very Conservative
Current Ratio	2.5x	Strong
Equity Ratio	58.2%	Conservative

Assessment: Fortress balance sheet. Net cash position possible by 2025 if capex normalizes.

Owner Earnings Calculation

Owner Earnings = Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx - ΔWC

2024 Owner Earnings:
= 211.8 + 43.5 - 35 (est maintenance) - 50 (WC build)
= 170.3M CHF

Normalized Owner Earnings (through-cycle average):
= 200M CHF (adjusting for cycle)

Valuation Analysis

Method 1: Owner Earnings Multiple

Scenario	Multiple	Value/Share	Current Price	MOS
Conservative	15x	CHF 100	CHF 384	-284%
Base	20x	CHF 133	CHF 384	-189%
Optimistic	25x	CHF 167	CHF 384	-130%

Method 2: DCF Analysis (Conservative)

Assumptions:

Revenue Growth: 8% CAGR to 2030, then 3% terminal
EBITDA Margin: 33% average
Capex: 5% of revenue
WACC: 9% (Swiss blue chip)
Terminal Multiple: 15x EBITDA

Year    Revenue   EBITDA    FCF
2025    1,050     347       240
2026    1,134     374       260
2027    1,225     404       280
2028    1,323     437       300
2029    1,429     472       325
2030    1,543     509       350
TV                7,635 (15x 2030 EBITDA)

DCF Value: ~CHF 280/share

Method 3: Relative Valuation

Metric	VACN	Peer Average	Premium
P/E	51.5x	25x	106%
EV/EBITDA	36x	15x	140%
P/S	11x	4x	175%

Assessment: Trading at 100%+ premium to industrial peers. Premium justified by market dominance but extent appears excessive.

Intrinsic Value Summary

Method	Value/Share	Weight	Weighted
Owner Earnings (20x)	CHF 133	25%	CHF 33
DCF Conservative	CHF 280	40%	CHF 112
DCF Optimistic	CHF 350	20%	CHF 70
Relative (normalized)	CHF 300	15%	CHF 45
Weighted IV			CHF 260

Margin of Safety at Current Price:

MOS = (IV - Price) / IV
MOS = (260 - 384) / 260 = -48%

Current price is 48% ABOVE estimated intrinsic value

Phase 3: Moat Analysis

Moat Sources

1. Technology Leadership (Primary Moat - STRONG)

Evidence: 500+ patents, 400 R&D engineers, 6% of revenue to R&D
Metric: 132 specification wins in 2024 (record), 70-77% market share
Duration: High - technology cycle advantages compound over 3-7 year design cycles
Economic Value: ~15% pricing premium vs competitors

2. Switching Costs (Primary Moat - STRONG)

Evidence: Valves are specified into customer tools during 2-7 year design cycles
Metric: Once specified, VAT earns revenue for tool's 10-15 year production life
Duration: Very High - cost of requalification >> cost of valve
Economic Value: Customer retention >95% once specified

3. Scale Economics (Secondary Moat - MEDIUM)

Evidence: CHF 2B+ capacity by 2027 vs fragmented competitors
Metric: 3,400 employees, global footprint (Switzerland, Malaysia, Romania)
Duration: Medium - scale can be replicated with capital
Economic Value: Lower unit costs, faster delivery

4. Network Effects (Weak - LOW)

Limited direct network effects but ecosystem lock-in exists
ASML, Lam Research, Applied Materials specify VAT valves
Indirect standard-setting through industry leadership

Moat Durability Assessment

Threat	Severity (1-5)	Timeline	Company Mitigation
Technology disruption	2	10+ years	Continuous R&D, customer co-development
Chinese competition	3	5-10 years	Technology lead, quality requirements
Customer integration	2	Unlikely	High specialization, uneconomic for customers
Regulatory change	1	N/A	Not a regulated industry directly
New entrants	2	5+ years	Capital requirements, qualification time

Will This Moat Be Wider or Narrower in 10 Years?

Assessment: WIDER

Rationale:

Semiconductor manufacturing complexity increasing (GAA, CFET, 2nm+)
Vacuum requirements becoming more stringent
VAT's R&D pipeline secured through 132 specification wins
Installed base of 1.7M valves creates recurring service revenue
China competition limited in leading-edge applications

Phase 4: Management & Capital Allocation

Management Team

Role	Name	Tenure	Assessment
CEO	Urs Gantner	Since 2024 (internal)	Positive - 20+ years at VAT
CFO	Fabian Chiozza	Since 2020	Positive - strong financial discipline
Chairman	Martin Komischke	Since 2018	Positive - semiconductor industry experience

Capital Allocation Track Record (2020-2024)

Use of FCF	CHF M	%	Assessment
Dividends	794	85%	Generous but sustainable
Capex	260	28%	Strategic - capacity expansion
M&A	0	0%	Conservative - organic focus
Debt Paydown	Net borrower	-	Low leverage maintained
Total FCF	942	100%

Assessment: Conservative, shareholder-friendly allocation. Payout ratio of 100%+ FCF is aggressive but supported by balance sheet strength.

Insider Ownership

Insiders own ~10.2% of shares
No significant insider selling reported
Major shareholders include institutional investors (47%)

Phase 5: Catalyst Analysis

Potential Catalysts

Catalyst	Timeline	Probability	Impact
WFE market recovery to $135B	2025-2027	60%	+30% revenue
AI chip demand acceleration	2025-2026	70%	Positive - more advanced tools
New adjacency products (ALD valve)	2025+	50%	+5-10% TAM
Innovation Center opening (April 2025)	Q2 2025	95%	Visibility, R&D boost
Market correction	Unknown	50%	Entry opportunity

No Catalyst Currently for Undervaluation

The stock is NOT undervalued; therefore, positive catalysts will only make it more expensive. The relevant "catalyst" for investment is a market correction creating an entry point.

Phase 6: Decision Synthesis

Megatrend Resilience Score

Megatrend	Score	Notes
China Tech Competition	+1	Both risks and benefits - diversified supply chain
Europe Degrowth	0	Swiss HQ, but global revenues
American Protectionism	+1	Benefits from friend-shoring
AI/Automation	+2	Direct beneficiary - AI chip manufacturing
Demographics/Aging	0	Neutral
Fiscal Crisis	0	Neutral - B2B industrial
Energy Transition	+1	Solar, nuclear fusion applications
Total	+5	Tier 2: Resilient

Graham Criteria Check

#	Criterion	Test	Pass?
1	Adequate Size	Sales CHF 942M > $100M	Yes
2	Strong Financials	Current Ratio 2.5x > 2	Yes
3	Earnings Stability	Positive earnings 10+ years	Yes
4	Dividend Record	Dividends since IPO (2016)	Partial
5	Earnings Growth	EPS +11% in 2024	Yes
6	Moderate P/E	P/E 51x >> 15x	NO
7	Moderate P/B	P/B 16.6x >> 1.5	NO

Graham Number:

Graham Number = √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
= √(22.5 × 7.06 × 25.15)
= √3,992
= CHF 63

Current Price CHF 384 = 510% of Graham Number

Position Sizing Formula

Position Size = Base × (MOS/Target) × (Quality/100) × (1-Risk) × Catalyst
Position Size = 4% × (0/30%) × (90/100) × (1-0.3) × 0.7
Position Size = 0%

At MOS = -48%, position size calculation = 0 (do not buy)

Expected Return Scenarios

Scenario	Probability	3-Year Return	Weighted
Bull (WFE $140B+, valuation holds)	20%	+50%	+10%
Base (WFE $120B, moderate de-rating)	40%	+10%	+4%
Bear (Cycle downturn, P/E compression)	30%	-30%	-9%
Disaster (Competition, secular decline)	10%	-50%	-5%
Expected 3-Year Return	100%		0%

Assessment: Expected return is approximately 0% given current valuation. Unfavorable risk/reward.

Final Recommendation

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                     INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION                   │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Company: VAT Group AG              Ticker: VACN.SW              │
│ Current Price: CHF 384.40          Date: December 25, 2024      │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ VALUATION SUMMARY                                               │
│ ┌─────────────────────────┬─────────────┬─────────────────────┐ │
│ │ Method                  │ Value/Share │ vs Current Price    │ │
│ ├─────────────────────────┼─────────────┼─────────────────────┤ │
│ │ Graham Number           │ CHF 63      │ -510% (AVOID)       │ │
│ │ Owner Earnings (15x)    │ CHF 100     │ -284% (AVOID)       │ │
│ │ Owner Earnings (20x)    │ CHF 133     │ -189% (AVOID)       │ │
│ │ DCF (Conservative)      │ CHF 280     │ -37% (AVOID)        │ │
│ │ DCF (Optimistic)        │ CHF 350     │ -10% (HOLD IF OWNED)│ │
│ └─────────────────────────┴─────────────┴─────────────────────┘ │
│                                                                 │
│ INTRINSIC VALUE ESTIMATE: CHF 260 (weighted average)            │
│ MARGIN OF SAFETY: -48% (NEGATIVE - OVERVALUED)                  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ RECOMMENDATION:  [ ] BUY  [ ] HOLD  [ ] SELL  [X] WAIT          │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ STRONG BUY PRICE:         CHF 200 (23% below IV, cycle trough)  │
│ ACCUMULATE PRICE:         CHF 250 (35% discount)                │
│ FAIR VALUE:               CHF 260 (IV estimate)                 │
│ CURRENT PRICE:            CHF 384 (48% premium)                 │
│ TAKE PROFITS:             CHF 500 (if owned)                    │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ POSITION SIZE: 0% until price < CHF 250                         │
│ CATALYST: Semiconductor downcycle creating entry opportunity    │
│ PRIMARY RISK: Extended cycle peak, valuation never normalizes   │
│ SELL TRIGGER: Market share below 60%, ROIC below 20%            │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Munger Final Test

Circle of Competence: Yes - Vacuum valves for chip manufacturing is understandable
Variant Perception: The market knows this is a great business - no variant perception at current price
Humility Check: If semiconductor capex cycles down 30%, thesis doesn't break but price will
50% Drop Test: Would buy aggressively at CHF 200, uncomfortable at CHF 384

Monitoring Metrics

Metric	Current	Threshold	Action if Breached
Market Share	70%+	<60%	Review thesis
EBITDA Margin	31%	<25% structurally	Review thesis
ROIC	36%	<20%	Sell
Net Debt/EBITDA	0.3x	>2.0x	Review risk
WFE Market	$~95B (2024)	<$70B	Buying opportunity
Stock Price	CHF 384	<CHF 250	ACCUMULATE
Stock Price	CHF 384	<CHF 200	STRONG BUY

Sources Used

Primary Documents Downloaded

Document	Source	Local Path
Annual Report 2024	vatgroup.com	/VACN/data/annual-report-2024.pdf
Annual Report 2023	vatgroup.com	/VACN/data/annual-report-2023.pdf
Annual Report 2022	vatgroup.com	/VACN/data/annual-report-2022.pdf
Annual Report 2021	vatgroup.com	/VACN/data/annual-report-2021.pdf
Annual Report 2020	vatgroup.com	/VACN/data/annual-report-2020.pdf

API Data Retrieved

Source	Data	Local Path
EODHD	Fundamentals	/VACN/data/fundamentals.json
EODHD	Financial Statements	/VACN/data/financials-eodhd.json
EODHD	Historical Prices	/VACN/data/historical-prices.json
EODHD	Dividends	/VACN/data/dividends.json

Analysis completed: December 25, 2024