Back to Portfolio
VZN

VZ Holding AG

CHF 147 5.8B market cap 2026-02-21
VZ Holding AG VZN BUFFETT / MUNGER / KLARMAN SUMMARY
1 SNAPSHOT
PriceCHF 147
Market Cap5.8B
2 BUSINESS

VZ Holding is an exceptional Swiss compounder: Switzerland's #1 independent financial advisory firm with 22% ROE, 48% EBIT margins, 61% founder ownership, and a widening moat from switching costs and brand trust. The fee-only advisory model is structurally superior to bank competitors, and aging Swiss demographics provide a permanent demand tailwind. However, at CHF 147 and 26.6x earnings, the stock offers no margin of safety. The business deserves a premium multiple, but patient investors should wait for a pullback to CHF 118 or below -- likely during a market correction or interest rate shock that compresses banking income. This is a classic "wonderful company at a fair price" that becomes a wonderful investment at a wonderful price.

3 MOAT WIDE

Switching Costs (PRIMARY): Holistic financial planning covering retirement, tax, insurance, mortgage, investments, estate creates deep multi-decade client relationships. Once entire financial life is managed by VZ, switching cost is enormous. Brand (PRIMARY): 33-year heritage as Switzerland's leading independent fee-only advisory firm. Fee-only model creates structural trust advantage over commission-based bank advisors. Scale (SECONDARY): 1,800+ specialists, banking license, internal training academy, operating leverage on growing CHF 56.5B AUM.

4 MANAGEMENT
CEO: Giulio Vitarelli

Excellent - Conservative 40% payout ratio with target of 50%. DPS CAGR of 21.8% over 5 years. Minimal CapEx (asset-light model). No M&A dilution. Strong organic growth reinvestment. CET1 ratio maintained well above regulatory requirements.

5 ECONOMICS
48.4% Op Margin
22.1% ROIC
22.1% ROE
26.6x P/E
0.239B FCF
-124% Debt/EBITDA
6 VALUATION
FCF Yield3.8%
DCF Range118 - 140

Overvalued by 5-25% depending on method

7 MUNGER INVERSION
Kill Event Severity P() E[Loss]
Interest rate compression reduces banking income (20% of revenue) HIGH - -
Swiss market saturation limits long-term growth MED - -
8 KLARMAN LENS
Downside Case

Interest rate compression reduces banking income (20% of revenue)

Why Market Right

Swiss interest rate cuts compress banking income (H1 2025 NII down 28.8%); Market correction would reduce AUM-based revenue (temporary but real); Founder (age 66) eventual estate planning could create share overhang

Catalysts

Aging Swiss demographics drive structural demand for retirement advisory (permanent tailwind); AUM compounding at 15%+ drives revenue growth through operating leverage; Germany expansion could open large new addressable market; Regulatory trend toward fee transparency benefits VZ's model vs. bank competitors

9 VERDICT WAIT
A Quality Very Strong - Net cash of CHF 1.3B, CET1 ratio 25.4% (well above regulatory minimum), 18 consecutive years of dividends never cut. Conservative 40% payout with target of 50%.
Strong BuyCHF 100
BuyCHF 118
Fair ValueCHF 140

Accumulate below CHF 118, Strong Buy below CHF 100. Place on watchlist.

🧠 ULTRATHINK Deep Philosophical Analysis

VZN - Ultrathink Analysis

The Core Question

We are not asking "is VZ Holding a good business?" The 48% operating margin, 22% ROE, 33-year track record, and 61% founder ownership answer that emphatically. The real question is: When a Swiss financial advisor trades at 26 times earnings, are you buying the toll booth on Swiss retirement wealth -- or overpaying for a small-country domestic franchise that may have already priced in its best decades?

The market sees VZ through two lenses: either a boring Swiss advisory firm (explain the neglect, the 2 analysts, the zero ETF inclusion) or a hidden Swiss compounder (explain the 5.5x book value, the 27x P/E). The deeper question is one that neither lens confronts: what is the terminal value of being the most trusted financial advisor in a country of 8.8 million people?

Moat Meditation

Consider what VZ actually does. A 55-year-old Swiss professional walks into a VZ office. Over the next two years, VZ restructures their entire financial life: renegotiates their mortgage, optimizes their pension withdrawal strategy, restructures their insurance portfolio, develops a tax-efficient investment plan, creates an estate plan. VZ becomes the central nervous system of this person's financial existence.

Now ask: what would it take for this person to switch to a competitor? They would need to recreate years of analysis, retransmit every document, re-explain every family dynamic, re-negotiate every financial relationship. The switching cost is not the fee differential -- it is the cognitive and emotional burden of reconstructing decades of planning work.

This is not a technical moat like a patent or a network effect that could be disrupted by technology. It is a relationship moat. It deepens with every passing year, every tax return filed, every retirement scenario modeled, every estate document updated. And because VZ targets clients aged 50 and above, these relationships are measured in decades, not years.

The fee-only model amplifies this moat structurally. When your bank advisor recommends a product, you wonder: is this really best for me, or does the bank earn a commission? When VZ recommends a product, there is no such question. The client knows VZ has no financial incentive other than the advisory fee. In a world of eroding trust in financial institutions, this purity of incentive is almost impossibly valuable. And it cannot be replicated by a bank. A bank that tries to become fee-only destroys its own commission revenue. This is what Munger would call a "structural competitive advantage from incentive alignment."

But here is the uncomfortable thought. A moat measured in human relationships has a ceiling measured in human population. Switzerland has 8.8 million people. Perhaps 1-2 million are in VZ's target demographic (affluent 50+). VZ already has tens of thousands of clients. At some point, organic growth must slow because the pond has a finite number of fish. The moat is deep but the lake is small.

The Owner's Mindset

Would Buffett own VZ Holding for 20 years? Almost certainly yes, but not at any price.

The business passes every qualitative Buffett test. The ROE is consistently above 20% without leverage gimmicks -- in fact, the equity multiplier has been declining while ROE has been rising, meaning the improvement comes from genuine margin expansion. The business is simple to understand. The founder has 61% ownership, meaning he is not an employee-CEO optimizing for stock options but a permanent owner-operator whose net worth rises and falls with the business. Capital allocation is conservative and shareholder-friendly: no dilutive acquisitions, no empire-building, disciplined dividend growth.

The Buffett concern would be twofold. First, the price. Buffett does not pay 27x earnings unless the growth runway is extraordinary. VZ's growth runway, while solid, is bounded by Swiss demographics. Second, the concentration. A single-country financial franchise in a country smaller than New York City's metro area is inherently limited. Buffett has always preferred businesses with essentially unlimited reinvestment runway -- Coca-Cola, Apple, American Express. VZ has a great moat but a modest runway.

Munger, however, might see it differently. Munger loves businesses where "the competitive destruction comes from the competitor's own incentive structure." Banks cannot become fee-only without destroying their commission income. This structural impossibility of competitive response is exactly what Munger prizes. He would also appreciate the founder's McKinsey background applied to financial services -- the disciplined process orientation, the internal training academy, the systematic client acquisition machine.

Risk Inversion

What could destroy this business?

The most probable path to permanent loss is not operational but structural: the Swiss franc itself. VZ earns in CHF. For a non-Swiss investor, a 50% CHF depreciation against their home currency would halve the investment value regardless of business performance. However, the Swiss franc has historically been the world's strongest currency -- so this risk, while real, works asymmetrically in VZ's favor for most investors.

The second risk is secular: interest rate normalization. In 2022, when Swiss rates rose from negative to positive, VZ's banking income exploded. This was a one-time windfall. As rates normalize or decline, this income stream will compress. H1 2025 already showed net interest income down 28.8%. The question is whether AUM fee growth (currently +16%) can more than offset this decline. The evidence so far says yes, but the margin of safety on this offset is shrinking.

The third risk is the one nobody discusses: regulatory capture in reverse. VZ's entire positioning is "we are independent, unlike the banks." If Swiss regulators mandate fee-only advice for all financial institutions, VZ's differentiation disappears. Every bank becomes fee-only by law, and VZ's structural advantage evaporates. This is low probability but would be devastating to the premium valuation.

The existential risk: the founder's estate. When Matthias Reinhart dies or decides to liquidate his 61% stake, there is no ready buyer for a CHF 3.5+ billion block of shares. The market impact of a disorderly sale could be catastrophic. An orderly transition (perhaps a foundation, a gradual program) mitigates this, but the risk cannot be eliminated.

Valuation Philosophy

At CHF 147, VZ trades at 26.6x trailing earnings and 5.5x book value. Is this justified by quality?

Let me approach this from first principles. VZ earns CHF 5.52 per share, growing at approximately 15% annually. If this growth rate persists for 10 years, EPS reaches CHF 22. At a terminal 18x multiple (fair for a mature, modestly growing advisory firm), the stock would be worth CHF 396. Discounted back at 9% (cost of equity), that is CHF 167 today. At CHF 147, the stock is roughly fairly valued under optimistic growth assumptions.

But what if growth slows to 8% (half current rate)? EPS reaches CHF 12 in 10 years. At 18x, that is CHF 216. Discounted at 9%, it is CHF 91 today. Under conservative assumptions, the stock is 60% overvalued.

The truth lies between these scenarios, and that is the problem. At CHF 147, you need to believe in the optimistic scenario to earn an adequate return. Value investing demands that you pay for the conservative scenario and benefit from the optimistic one. At this price, the relationship is inverted.

The Patient Investor's Path

VZ Holding belongs on every quality-focused investor's watchlist. It is a rare breed: a Swiss founder-led compounder with genuine competitive advantages, exceptional economics, and a permanent demographic tailwind.

But the price must come to us. The business compounds at 15%+ annually. The stock, at 27x earnings, prices in much of this compounding. The margin of safety at current prices is negative, meaning any negative surprise -- an interest rate shock, a growth slowdown, a market correction -- would result in losses before the compounding can rescue the investment.

The ideal entry point is during one of three events:

  1. A broad Swiss/European market correction that drags all stocks down indiscriminately (most probable catalyst)
  2. An interest rate shock that temporarily compresses banking income and creates an earnings miss (moderate probability)
  3. Any announcement related to the founder's stake that creates uncertainty (low probability but would create the best price)

At CHF 118 (accumulate) or CHF 100 (strong buy), the math changes dramatically. At CHF 118, you pay 21x earnings for a business growing at 15% with a widening moat. At CHF 100, you pay 18x -- approximately what you would pay for the average company in the Swiss market, except this is not average at all.

The lesson VZ Holding teaches is the hardest one in investing: the quality of the business and the quality of the investment are two different things. VZ is an A-grade business. At CHF 147, it is a C-grade investment. Patient capital waits for the A-grade business to become available at an A-grade price.

As Buffett would say: the stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. VZ Holding rewards the patient.

Executive Summary

VZ Holding AG is Switzerland's leading independent financial advisory firm, founded in 1993 by Matthias Reinhart. The company provides fee-only financial consulting, wealth management, and banking services to affluent individuals (aged 50+) and corporations. With CHF 56.5 billion in AUM, 22% ROE, 48% EBIT margins, and an 18-year unbroken dividend record, this is an exceptional quality business. However, at 26.6x trailing earnings and 5.5x book value, the stock demands a premium entry price analysis. The founder retains 61% ownership, ensuring permanent alignment with shareholders.

Investment Thesis (3 sentences): VZ Holding is a rare Swiss compounder with a powerful client-captive moat, founder-led governance, and expanding margins from operating leverage on growing AUM. The fee-only advisory model creates structural competitive advantage in a market plagued by commission-driven conflicts of interest. At CHF 147, the stock trades above fair value; accumulation below CHF 120 would offer adequate margin of safety for this A-grade business.

Key Metrics Dashboard:

Metric Value Assessment
ROE (5yr avg) 21.3% Excellent (Buffett test: PASS)
EBIT Margin 48.4% (2024) Exceptional
Net Margin 41.6% (2024) Exceptional
Revenue CAGR (5yr) 12.4% Strong
EPS CAGR (5yr) 16.6% Strong
DPS CAGR (5yr) 21.8% Excellent
Net Cash Position CHF 1.3B Fortress
CET1 Ratio 25.4% Well above regulatory minimum
Founder Ownership 61.1% Maximum alignment
Dividend Streak 18 years, never cut Reliable

PHASE 0: Opportunity Identification (Klarman)

Why Does This Opportunity Exist?

Short answer: It may not exist at current prices. At 26.6x P/E and 5.5x P/B, the market recognizes this is a quality business.

Potential mispricing sources:

  1. Geographic neglect -- Swiss small/mid-cap with minimal international analyst coverage (only 2 analysts). Most global investors have never heard of VZ Holding. The stock is not in MSCI World or major ETF indices, creating structural underownership.
  2. Name confusion -- "VZ" is universally associated with Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), causing search confusion and algorithmic neglect.
  3. Swiss premium discount -- Swiss stocks trade at perpetual valuation discounts relative to US comparables due to currency risk perception, lower liquidity, and home bias.
  4. Business model misunderstanding -- VZ is classified as "financial services" but operates more like a high-margin consulting/technology platform. The banking license creates asset-heavy optics that mask the underlying economics.

Klarman Assessment: No forced selling, no temporary problem. The opportunity, if it exists, comes from structural neglect and geographic discount. Requires patience for better entry price.

PHASE 1: Risk Analysis (Inversion)

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." -- Munger

Risk 1: Interest Rate Compression Destroys Banking Income

  • Description: VZ earns significant net interest income from its banking operations. Swiss rates have already been cut and further reductions would compress NIM.
  • Probability: 50% (rates trending lower)
  • Impact: 10-15% revenue hit in worst case (banking income is ~20% of revenue)
  • Expected Loss: 5-7.5% revenue impact
  • Mitigation: AUM fee income growing 16%+ offsets banking income decline. H1 2025 showed net interest income down 28.8% but total revenue still grew 9.9%.

Risk 2: Swiss Market Saturation

  • Description: VZ operates predominantly in Switzerland (population 8.8M). The addressable market of wealthy 50+ individuals is finite. Growth could plateau.
  • Probability: 25% (within 5 years)
  • Impact: Revenue growth slows to 3-5% from current 12%+ CAGR
  • Expected Loss: Significant P/E compression from 26x to 18-20x (-25-30% share price)
  • Mitigation: AUM still growing 18% annually. Germany expansion underway. Platform clients growing 13%. Still early in penetrating addressable market.

Risk 3: Founder/Key Person Risk

  • Description: Matthias Reinhart (age 66) owns 61% and recently transitioned from CEO to Chairman (2023). New CEO Giulio Vitarelli has been in role since 2023.
  • Probability: 30% (succession issues within 5 years)
  • Impact: Culture dilution, strategic drift, potential share overhang if founder estate sells
  • Expected Loss: 15-25% share price impact
  • Mitigation: Transition already underway. Vitarelli is experienced (in role 3+ years now). Strong corporate culture embedded through internal training program.

Risk 4: Regulatory Change in Swiss Financial Services

  • Description: New regulations could require fee disclosure, limit advisory pricing, or change the competitive landscape.
  • Probability: 15%
  • Impact: Margin compression of 5-10 percentage points
  • Expected Loss: 1-1.5% annual margin impact
  • Mitigation: VZ's fee-only model is already the "gold standard" regulators favor. Regulation typically hurts commission-based competitors more.

Risk 5: Technology Disruption (Robo-Advisors, AI)

  • Description: Automated wealth management platforms could erode VZ's advisory premium.
  • Probability: 15% (meaningful impact within 10 years)
  • Impact: Margin and growth compression
  • Expected Loss: Moderate
  • Mitigation: VZ's value is holistic life-stage advisory (retirement, estate, tax), not just portfolio management. Robo-advisors handle simple asset allocation, not complex Swiss pension/tax optimization.

Inversion Section (Required)

How could this investment lose 50%+ permanently?

  • Swiss financial crisis (extremely low probability given Swiss banking regulation)
  • Founder sells 61% stake in distressed fire sale (estate issue or personal crisis)
  • Regulatory destruction of fee-only advisory model (very unlikely; trend favors VZ)
  • AUM bear market combined with interest rate collapse (double hit) -- the most realistic risk, but even then, a 30-40% drawdown is more probable than permanent loss

Non-price sell triggers:

  • Founder sells >10% of stake without strategic rationale
  • CET1 ratio falls below 15%
  • Net new money turns negative for 2+ consecutive years
  • Operating margin drops below 35%

3-sentence bear case (if short): VZ Holding trades at 26x earnings for a business that earns 20% of revenue from declining interest income, operates in a tiny domestic market, and is run by a 66-year-old founder with no natural successor in family. At 5.5x book value, you're paying for a decade of growth that Swiss demographics may not support. When the founder's 61% stake eventually transitions, the share overhang could devastate the stock.

Can I state this better than bears? Yes. The bear case is real on demographics and interest rate sensitivity, but overstates founder risk (transition already completed) and understates the platform nature of the business.

PHASE 2: Financial Analysis

ROE Decomposition (DuPont)

Component FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024
Net Margin 35.7% 36.7% 36.5% 40.3% 41.6%
Asset Turnover 0.066 0.067 0.070 0.071 0.070
Equity Multiplier 8.06x 8.24x 7.71x 7.06x 7.05x
ROE 20.1% 21.7% 20.6% 22.0% 22.1%

Analysis: ROE is driven primarily by high net margins and financial leverage (banking operations). The equity multiplier has actually been declining (from 8.1x to 7.1x) as equity grows faster than assets, meaning ROE improvement is purely from margin expansion -- a high-quality signal. Asset turnover is low and stable (typical for banking-licensed entities).

Owner Earnings Calculation

Net Income (FY2024):                CHF 218.2M
+ Depreciation/Amortization (est):  CHF  15.0M
- Maintenance CapEx (est):          CHF  10.0M
- Working Capital change (est):     CHF   5.0M
= Owner Earnings:                   CHF 218.2M

Owner earnings approximately equal net income because CapEx is minimal (asset-light advisory business) and D&A roughly equals maintenance CapEx. This is a hallmark of a superb business model.

Owner Earnings per share: CHF 218.2M / 39.5M shares = CHF 5.52

Valuation Trinity (Klarman Framework)

1. Liquidation Value (Floor)

  • Tangible equity: CHF 1,062M (FY2024)
  • Per share: CHF 26.73
  • Current price vs liquidation: 5.5x -- liquidation value is irrelevant for a going concern this profitable

2. Going Concern Value (DCF - Conservative)

Assumptions:

  • Owner Earnings Year 1: CHF 233M (FY2025E)
  • Growth Years 1-5: 8% (below consensus 10%+)
  • Growth Years 6-10: 5%
  • Terminal growth: 2.5% (Swiss nominal GDP proxy)
  • Discount rate: 8.5% (risk-free 1.5% + equity premium 5% + Swiss small-cap premium 2%)
Year Owner Earnings PV Factor PV
1 233 0.922 214.8
2 252 0.849 213.9
3 272 0.783 212.9
4 293 0.722 211.5
5 317 0.665 210.8
6 333 0.613 204.1
7 349 0.565 197.2
8 367 0.521 191.1
9 385 0.480 184.8
10 404 0.442 178.6
Terminal 404 x 1.025 / (0.085 - 0.025) = 6,902 0.442 3,050.7
Total 5,070.4

DCF Intrinsic Value: CHF 5,070M / 39.5M shares = CHF 128 per share

3. Owner Earnings Multiple

  • Conservative (10x): CHF 5.52 x 10 = CHF 55.20 (floor for a growing business)
  • Fair (18x, growth-adjusted): CHF 5.52 x 18 = CHF 99.36
  • Premium (25x, quality premium): CHF 5.52 x 25 = CHF 138.00

4. Private Market Value Comparable M&A transactions for fee-based wealth managers:

  • Typical acquisitions at 2-3% of AUM
  • VZ AUM = CHF 56.5B
  • Private market value = CHF 1.13B - 1.70B = CHF 29 - 43 per share (conservative floor, based on AUM value alone)
  • Better comp: 20-30x earnings for quality wealth managers = CHF 110 - 166 per share

5. Graham Number

Graham Number = sqrt(22.5 x EPS x BVPS) = sqrt(22.5 x 5.52 x 26.73) = sqrt(3,319) = CHF 57.61

The Graham number is irrelevant for quality growth businesses but confirms VZ does not trade at "Graham value" levels.

Margin of Safety Summary

Method Value/Share (CHF) vs Current CHF 147
Graham Number 57.61 -60.8% (overvalued)
DCF (Conservative) 128 -12.9% (overvalued)
Owner Earnings (18x) 99.36 -32.4% (overvalued)
Owner Earnings (25x) 138.00 -6.1% (overvalued)
Private Market (25x) 166 +12.9% (slight upside)

Weighted Intrinsic Value Estimate: CHF 130-140 Margin of Safety at CHF 147: Negative (-5% to -12%)

The stock is trading at or slightly above fair value. No margin of safety at current prices.

PHASE 3: Moat Analysis

Moat Sources

1. Switching Costs (PRIMARY - STRONG)

  • VZ builds comprehensive financial plans covering retirement, tax, insurance, mortgage, investments, and estate planning. Once a client's entire financial life is managed through VZ, switching costs are enormous.
  • Client relationships are multi-decade (target 50+ demographic = 20-30 year relationships)
  • Data moat: VZ accumulates years of client financial history, tax records, and planning documents
  • Metric: Net new money consistently positive (CHF 5.1B in 2024), implying strong retention

2. Brand/Trust (PRIMARY - STRONG)

  • "VZ VermogensZentrum" is the most recognized independent financial advisory brand in Switzerland
  • Founded 1993 = 33 years of brand building
  • Fee-only positioning creates powerful trust differentiation vs. bank-employed advisors
  • Won "Best Employer 2026" and multiple industry awards
  • Metric: Client acquisition 9,600 new clients in 2024, 13% platform growth

3. Scale Advantage (SECONDARY)

  • Largest independent advisory firm in Switzerland with 1,800+ specialists
  • Banking license enables integrated deposit-taking, lending, and securities services
  • Fixed cost base spread across growing AUM creates operating leverage (margins expanded from 41.7% to 48.4% over 5 years)
  • Metric: EBIT margin expanded 680bps over 5 years despite employee growth of 12.7% per year

4. Human Capital (SUPPORTING)

  • VZ runs its own internal training academy (4-year program)
  • Grows its own financial consultants from trainees
  • Creates cultural cohesion and consistent service quality
  • Difficult for competitors to poach trained talent at scale

Moat Durability Assessment

Threat Severity (1-5) Timeline Mitigation
Robo-advisors 2 10+ years VZ offers holistic life-stage planning, not just portfolios
Bank competition 2 Ongoing Banks have conflict of interest (product sales); VZ's fee-only model is structurally superior
Regulatory change 2 5+ years Regulation trend favors transparency (VZ's model)
New entrants 1 Ongoing 33-year brand, banking license, 1,800 specialists create massive barriers
Technology disruption 2 10+ years VZ can adopt AI to enhance (not replace) advisors

10-year moat trajectory: WIDER -- Operating leverage, brand deepening, and growing data advantage create a widening moat. The fee-only model becomes more valuable as regulation tightens globally.

PHASE 4: Synthesis

Megatrend Resilience

Megatrend Score Notes
China Tech Superiority +1 Immune -- purely Swiss domestic
Europe Degrowth 0 Swiss GDP resilient; but part of broader European financial system
American Protectionism +1 Immune -- no US exposure
AI/Automation +1 Benefits from AI-enhanced advisory
Demographics/Aging +2 Core beneficiary -- target clients are 50+ retirees
Fiscal Crisis +1 Net cash, Swiss franc, counter-cyclical demand for financial planning
Energy Transition +1 Immune -- zero energy intensity
Total +7 Tier 1 "Fortress"

Expected Return (at CHF 147)

Scenario Probability 5yr Return Weighted
Bull (EPS CHF 8.50 x 28 PE) 20% +62% 12.4%
Base (EPS CHF 7.50 x 24 PE) 50% +22% 11.1%
Bear (EPS CHF 6.00 x 20 PE) 25% -18% -4.6%
Disaster (EPS CHF 4.50 x 15 PE) 5% -54% -2.7%
Expected 100% 16.2%

Plus dividends of ~2%/year = 18% total expected 5yr return = ~3.4% annualized from current price.

This is inadequate for a first entry. A 20% discount to current price would bring the expected return to a more acceptable level.

Entry Price Targets

Level Price (CHF) P/E (FY2024) Margin of Safety
Fair Value 135 24.5x 0%
Accumulate 118 21.4x 13%
Strong Buy 100 18.1x 26%
Current Price 147 26.6x -9% (overvalued)

Monitoring Thresholds

Metric Current Threshold Action if Breached
Net New Money CHF 5.1B Negative for 2 qtrs Reassess thesis
EBIT Margin 48.4% Below 40% Investigate cause
ROE 22.1% Below 15% Sell trigger
AUM Growth +18.2% Below 5% for 2 years Reassess growth thesis
CET1 Ratio 25.4% Below 15% Immediate sell
Founder Ownership 61.1% Below 40% Assess motivation for sale

Sell Triggers (Pre-Committed)

  1. Thesis break: Net new money turns negative for 4+ consecutive quarters
  2. Moat erosion: EBIT margin drops below 35% without clear temporary cause
  3. Management failure: CET1 ratio falls below 15%, or major regulatory enforcement action
  4. Valuation: Price exceeds CHF 210 (50% above CHF 140 fair value)

INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION

+-------------------------------------------------------------+
|                  INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION                    |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| Company: VZ Holding AG           Ticker: VZN.SW              |
| Current Price: CHF 147.00        Date: 2026-02-21            |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| VALUATION SUMMARY                                             |
| Graham Number:           CHF  57.61    -60.8% (overvalued)   |
| DCF (Conservative):      CHF 128.00    -12.9% (overvalued)   |
| Owner Earnings (18x):    CHF  99.36    -32.4% (overvalued)   |
| Owner Earnings (25x):    CHF 138.00     -6.1% (overvalued)   |
| Private Market (25x):    CHF 166.00    +12.9% (undervalued)  |
|                                                               |
| INTRINSIC VALUE ESTIMATE: CHF 135 (weighted average)         |
| MARGIN OF SAFETY: -8.9% (negative)                           |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| RECOMMENDATION:  [X] WAIT                                     |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| STRONG BUY:              CHF 100 (26% MOS)                   |
| ACCUMULATE:              CHF 118 (13% MOS)                   |
| FAIR VALUE:              CHF 135                              |
| TAKE PROFITS:            CHF 165 (20% above IV)              |
| SELL:                    CHF 210 (50% above IV)              |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| POSITION SIZE: 3-4% of portfolio (when entry price reached)  |
| CATALYST: Demographics tailwind + AUM growth compounding      |
| PRIMARY RISK: Swiss market saturation + interest rate decline |
| SELL TRIGGER: Net new money negative 4 qtrs / ROE < 15%     |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+

Verdict: WAIT. VZ Holding is an A-grade Swiss compounder with an exceptional business model, founder alignment, and widening moat. However, at CHF 147, the stock offers no margin of safety relative to conservative intrinsic value of CHF 135. Accumulate below CHF 118; strong buy below CHF 100. Place on watchlist for market correction or company-specific pullback (interest rate shock, founder selling). The business itself is one of the best in Swiss financial services.

Sources Used

Source URL Key Data
VZ IR - Financial Reports vermoegenszentrum.ch/en/investor-relations/financial-reports Annual report links, H1 2025
VZ IR - Portrait vermoegenszentrum.ch/en/portrait Business model, history
FinanzWire Press Release finanzwire.com/press-release/vz-holding-ag-... FY2024 detailed results
StockAnalysis.com stockanalysis.com/quote/swx/VZN/ Income/balance/cashflow/dividends
MarketScreener marketscreener.com/quote/stock/VZ-HOLDING-AG-237887/ Per-share data, consensus, shareholders
Investing.com investing.com/news/earnings/vz-group-sees-slower... H1 2025 results
Finews.com finews.com/news/english-news/68861-vz-gruppe... H1 2025 commentary